Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 170448
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A good consensus among the deterministic models leads to high
  confidence in the forecast through Monday.

- Colder and drier air moves in tonight keeping dry conditions
  in place through Monday.

- The dry air and breezy winds will create elevated fire danger
  for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

19Z water vapor imagery showed a cut off low over northwestern
AZ with a high amplitude ridge over British Columbia and
corresponding trough over the Great Lakes. Surface obs showed a
cold front beginning to move through northeast KS.

There is a good consensus among the deterministic models with the
pattern through Monday. The forecast through will be dominated by
the upper trough over the Great Lakes as a strong Canadian high
pressure system builds south. This will bring much colder and drier
air to the plains with any shortwave that may swing through the
middle MO river valley Sunday with no moisture to work with. So
there isn`t much change to the forecast of dry conditions with
colder temps.

The pattern is progged to break down by Tuesday, allowing for a
moderation in temps. But trends from the 12Z models have been to
take shortwave energy mid week south of the forecast area across the
southern plains. This allows weak surface ridging to remain over
northeast KS and prevents deep moisture from returning this far
north. Cluster anaylisis of the 00Z ensembles supports this trend
with a majority of the runs showing anomalously low 500MB heights
over the southern plains. So POPs Wed night and Thursday have
trended south. Although they may still be to optimistic in the
chance for measurable precipitation. Have opted to keep the NBM
initialization for now and will see how later runs of the
deterministic solutions trend. With a less amplified pattern for the
last half of the forecast, temps are forecast to remain a little
more mild and closer to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. An upper trough
continues to push through the area. Thus, any mid to high cloud
cover shifts south of the area. This leaves mostly clear skies
through the period as a cooler and drier airmass continues to
push into the region. As a result of the low level CAA
continuing as the surface ridge builds into the area, have
winds gusting by mid morning through early this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Elevated fire danger is expected for Sunday and Monday as the
strong surface ridge builds into the central plains. Fire
weather conditions look to be worse on Sunday as very dry air
moves in while north to northwest winds gust up to 30 mph.
Minimum RH values are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 percent
range. Northwest winds should relax a little for Monday with
sustained speeds in the 10 to 15 mph range. But afternoon RH
values will remain in the 20 to 25 percent range.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters


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