Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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179
FXUS63 KTOP 152316
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Tonight through Monday, an upper level trough across the upper
Midwest, southward across the mid MS river valley will move into the
eastern US by 00Z TUE. The center of a broad ridge of high pressure
will move southeast across the CWA Tonight, then shift southeast
across northern AR into north TX by Monday afternoon.

Light winds, clear skies and a rather dry airmass in place will
result in good radiational cooling and low temperatures will drop
into the mid to upper 30s. The western counties may see temps rise a
few degrees before sunrise as southwesterly surface winds increase
to 3 to 5 KTS on the northwest side of the surface ridge axis. The
coolest readings at sunrise may be across the northeast and portions
of the central CWA where winds will remain calm through the early
morning hours. Due to the dry airmass in place temperature dewpoint
depressions may be 2 to 3 degrees which may limit widespread frost
from developing. There should be patchy to areas of frost developing
just before sunrise across much of the CWA. I placed a frost
advisory in effect for areas of the CWA that will fall to or below
37 degrees. At this time low temperatures should remain above 32
degrees.

Monday, Southerly winds on the west side of the departing surface
ridge axis  will help high temperatures to warm into upper 60s to
lower 70s after a cold start.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Mostly quiet and dry weather for much of the week until next
weekend. A northwest mid level flow is forecast across the central
Plains through mid week with a transition to southwest flow by
Friday. Models continue to move a mid level trough off the eastern
Pacific and into the western CONUS on Friday then vary progressing
it eastward through Sunday. Moisture begins to return on Friday as
surface trough deepens in the lee of the Rockies with dew point
temperatures increasing into the middle 50s ahead of the advancing
mid level trough and surface cold front. Will continue with
precipitation chances Friday night through early Sunday with the
best chances looking like Saturday and Saturday night. Shear and
instability favor a mention of thunderstorms next Saturday. Much of
the week is looking pleasant temperaturewise with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 40s warming into the lower 60s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR prevails as area of sfc high pressure shifts east of terminals
aft 18Z. Developing sfc trough to the west will increase wind
speeds close to 10 kts sustained at KMHK and KFOE in the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Prieto



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