Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 210507
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Surface high pressure continues to push into western Kansas where
clear skies are prominent.  Stratus from this morning continues to
break up and scatter over northeast Kansas.  Gusty winds have
decreased throughout the afternoon as the gradient has relaxed.
Highs for the day have been trending slightly down due to the cloud
cover with primarily readings expected to max out in the mid 70s.
By early evening, clouds will have moved east of the area and the
center of high pressure should be neat central Kansas allowing for
light winds overnight and through the morning.  Diurnal cooling will
bring temperatures into the mid 50s by early morning.  There is a
chance for some fog given the light winds, clear skies, and recent
rainfall; however, models have had a hard time picking up on this
potential for now. Another pleasant day is in store for tomorrow
with dry conditions and highs only slightly warmer than today, in
the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Upper flow begins to become more zonal over the Central Plains
Sunday night while the surface high moves off to the east and a
surface trough deepens over the High Plains. Return flow Sunday
night will bump lows up into the lower 60s in north central Kansas
and upper 50s elsewhere. Warmup on Monday with ridging aloft and
increasing southerly flow will give temps a bump up into the mid 80s
across the CWA. A series of shortwaves will move out across the
Central Plains in the Tuesday through early Thursday time period. A
cold front will move through the Plains in the Tuesday night through
Wednesday night time period. Rain chances increase Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, then end with the passage of the front
early Thursday. Temperatures will cool into the 70s behind the front
Thursday and Friday as cool high pressure settles over the region.
Temperatures warm back into the lower 80s on Saturday with return
flow behind the departing surface high. Models bring another trough
across the Plains but differ with the strength. Isentropic lift over
the frontal boundary forecast to be across southern Kansas or
northern Oklahoma as well as the mid and upper level forcing will
bring a chance of back to the area Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. It now appears
that any fog even in low areas at TOP/MHK is unlikely due to
observations of 15+ kt winds near 1000 feet.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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