Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 220804

National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Today and Tonight, An upper level ridge across the southern high
plains will move east across the southern plains. An upper level
trough will ride around the upper ridge axis across the northern
plains. A weak front will approach north central KS by 12Z SUN.

A lee surface trough will deepen across the central and norther high
plains. The surface  pressure gradient across western and central KS
will be weaker, thus southerly winds will only increase to 10 to 20
MPH with some higher gusts.

Highs Today will warm into the lower to mid 70s across northeast and
east central KS with mid to upper 70s across north central and
central KS. Overnight lows will be mild, with lows only dropping into
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

From Sunday morning through early afternoon, a frontal passage
will make its way though northeast Kansas. No precipitation is
expected with this front, but light southerly winds will shift out
of the northeast by late Sunday afternoon. This will act to cool
low temperatures slightly from the previous night into the middle
40s early Monday morning. An upper level ridge builds in over the
Central Plains Monday and temperatures stay near 70 degrees.
Southerly winds build back in by Tuesday bringing an influx of
moisture with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. A shortwave quickly
progresses across the central CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning bringing chances for thunderstorms across the entire area.
A mid-level ridge moves in behind the wave and dry conditions are
expected through Friday. High temperatures from Wednesday onwards
will be in the lower 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Wind dropping in east central KS while staying up farther north
and west. Expect pressure gradient to be strong enough to keep fog
from forming in valley locations tonight. Winds will pick up some
Saturday afternoon, around 10KT with some higher gusts. Main
concern may be whether LLWS could occur by late evening Saturday
night as southwesterly low-level jet increases to over 40KT.
However, will leave out at this time due to marginal situation.


Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Area vegetation continues to slowly dry out, with latest percent
green grids coming in around 25-35%. Although afternoon relative
humidities over the weekend drop into the 30-45% range, the winds
are generally below 12kts and keep fire danger on the low to
moderate end. A front pushes through on Sunday morning and
switches winds from south to northwest.




LONG TERM...Heller
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