Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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664
FXUS63 KTOP 181742
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

High pressure was centered over Missouri and extended westward into
eastern Kansas. South to southwest winds have developed across north
central Kansas on the back side of the high at 09Z where
temperatures have slowly risen over the past couple of hours. Patchy
fog has developed across northeast and east central Kansas with
visibilities generally around a mile or higher. Expect the fog to
potentially hang around through 9 AM then dissipate. High clouds
will continue to stream northward today as an upper level low moves
northeastward into western and central Kansas. High temperatures
today will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Tonight with the approach of the upper trough and associated energy
rotating around it expect to see an increase in low level moisture
with southerly winds increasing in the 950mb-850mb layer. Soundings
show widespread clouds across much of the area after 09Z. Southeast
of I-35 model soundings show potential for some drizzle and have
added it after 09Z. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid to
upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

By Thursday and Friday, models show a closed mid-level low tracking
northeastward over the CWA. With several model soundings showing
some low-level moisture and lift present from this passing wave,
some areas of drizzle and patchy fog will be possible through
Friday, primarily across north central to northeast Kansas.  While
these areas of drizzle and low clouds will keep temperatures cooler
in the upper 40s/low 50s Thursday and Friday across north central to
northeast KS, expect more mild conditions across far east central KS
where high temperatures may reach into the mid/upper 50s.

Conditions will dry out Friday night and Saturday as the mid-level
wave lifts to the northeast and before the next wave advances into
the area. Models show a mid-level trough over the southwestern U.S.
on Saturday, with this wave progressing due-east across Arkansas and
Texas Saturday night into Sunday. Latest model runs are tracking a
bit further south with this second wave and, as a result, the wrap-
around precipitation may only clip far east central KS late Saturday
night into Sunday. As a result, have trimmed back the coverage of
PoPs a bit.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected by early next week as
surface high pressure shifts into the central U.S.  However,
conditions will still be unseasonably mild with highs in the mid 40s
to low 50s and low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. This
surface high pressure will quickly be pushed eastward as another mid-
level trough advances into the area on Tuesday/Tuesday night.  With
overnight temperatures near or below freezing, scattered
precipitation could transition between rain and snow on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day once a pocket
of LIFR/IFR fog lifts over far eastern KS early this afternoon.
CIGS and visbys will gradually lower tonight to IFR or even LIFR
and persist through much of the day tomorrow. Winds will remain
from the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Skow



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