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000
FXUS63 KTOP 160451
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ONGOING PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BRINGING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE AS IT PASSES.  WAVE THAT IS AIDING IN GENERATING THESE STORMS
IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AS
CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY.  IMPULSE HAS ROTATED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND AIDED IN ENHANCING THE
ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST.  FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WOULD ANTICIPATE CELLS TO GENERATE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THE LIFT IN FRONT OF THE WAVE IN THE EAST. STORMS OUT WEST
TRYING TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER OUTFLOW
AIR IN THE 70S TO THE NORTH AND THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...MEETING ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
LEADING WAVE NOT THINKING THESE LATER DAY STORMS WEST WILL BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP MUCH.  MAY SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
NE COLORADO LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
IN THE SW OVERNIGHT IF THIS COMPLEX CLIPS THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA
LATER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOVES TOWARD THE FAR NW
CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD
MAINLY FOR UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION REMAIN...AND WHERE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
FOCUSED ON NW AREA. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO CONSOLIDATE INTO SOME TYPE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I70 DURING THE EVENING. WOULD
EXPECT SYSTEM TO BE EXITING EC KS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH
ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN KS
DURING THE DAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THAT TROUGH AND THEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING
IN SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. 12Z NAM IS THE OUTLIER IN TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE DISREGARDED THIS MODEL AS IT IS THE ODD MODEL
OUT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN TRIES TO BREAK DOWN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PROGRESS INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTOP/KFOE...SO HAVE JUST ADDED A
MENTION OF VCTS FOR KMHK AT THIS TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...60
AVIATION...HENNECKE