Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 272354
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Surface cold front had moved through much of the CWA this afternoon
and extended from east of Lawrence southeast into north central
Oklahoma. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed further
east from far eastern Kansas to central Missouri. Best frontogenesis
was southeast of the CWA and in west central Missouri. 850 mb front
was moving through the forecast area and looks to extend from near
Lawrence to Emporia. Have dropped thunder from the forecast as
better instability is located further east in Missouri. The upper
trough was moving across the Northern Plains into Colorado. The
models are in agreement with moving the upper trough axis eastward
tonight and exit by sunrise Tuesday. High pressure will then build
east and southeast into the Plains in the wake of the trough on
Tuesday. Cool advection behind the front will send lows in the 40s.
Sunny skies and seasonal temperatures are expected on Tuesday as
high pressure builds in and the upper trough moves off into the
Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Models are now bring colder air into the county warning area (cwa)
Wednesday morning. With clear skies...very light/calm winds later in
the night near ridge axis and lower dewpoints...this seems
reasonable. With lows in the middle 30s across the northern half of
the cwa...this also suggests some potential for patchy frost...which
has been added as well. With skies mostly sunny through the day
Wednesday and a return to south winds...temperatures should recover
back into the middle to upper 60s...which will then extend into
Thursday before the next northwest flow wave brings cooler highs
back into the 50s for Friday...but with mostly clear/mostly sunny
skies continuing.

Temperatures will then begin to moderate again into the weekend as
the upper ridge in the Rockies translates eastward with a return to
increasing southerly flow.  Will keep the forecast dry through
Saturday night. The western trough then advances out into the
central plains with a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
Sunday through Monday. Highs both Sunday and Monday will be in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR prevails at sites as the mid level front and associated cloud
cover gradually push southeast through 09Z. Some short term
guidance was hinting at patchy fog developing near sunrise but
it would depend on mid level clouds clearing. For now believe SCT
mid level clouds hang around until sunrise. Westerly winds increase
around 10 kts by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen






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