Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 020847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER ROUND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.  LOW CLOUDS AND
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED OVER EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES NOTED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...DAY STARTS OUT ON THE CLOUDY SIDE AS COOL
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS HAS LEFT BEHIND LOW CLOUDS.  WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BREAK UP FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CONVECTION COMING
INTO CTRL AND WRN KS WOULD ANTICIPATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
REESTABLISH THEMSELVES LATER TODAY. CLOUDINESS ALSO LIKELY TO
INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BRING SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS TODAY
AND AGAIN LATER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  BETTER INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND DECREASES TO THE NORTHEAST.  COULD SEE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY WEST AND DURING PEAK HEATING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MORE WELL DEFINED WAVE PASSES.
HIGHS HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH TWO DISTINCT WAVES FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT. ON FRIDAY THE SFC-850MB
REGIME IS RATHER UNORGANIZED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BOUNDARIES
FOR A FOCUS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THAT
SAID WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING COULD SEE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT TSRA SO WILL CONTINUE SCT POPS FOR MAINLY PM
STORMS. EXPECT DRY WX FRI NIGHT AS THE SFC/850MB BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA.

ON SAT...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING AND SFC-850MB WAA EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A FOCUS ASIDE FROM WEAK WAVE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SLIGHT CHC POPS BUT NOTHING
MORE. FEEL THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY SAT INTO SAT EVENING AS
BETTER FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A COMPLEX MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO KS LATER SAT NIGHT.

LOW POPS FOR SUN WILL INCREASE BY MON AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA SO EXPECT BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THE MON-TUES
TIME FRAME. BEYOND TUES LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHCS GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN GFS/ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MONITORING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP LOW STRATUS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. HAVE NOTICED SOME DISCREPANCIES IN MODELS INITIALIZING
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS HAVING SOME IMPACT ON CEILING
HEIGHTS...HOWEVER BELIEVE AT LEAST MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IS
LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLOWER TREND IN TSRA FROM GUIDANCE LEAD TO
REMOVING VCTS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN



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