Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 192050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloudcover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Current IFR/LIFR ceilings at TOP/FOE should clear out by 19Z.  VFR
conditions are expected throughout the rest of today and this
evening.  Guidance suggests the possibility for another round of
lower visibilities/ceilings between 11Z and 15Z at TOP and FOE,
which has been introduced into this TAF package.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller






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