Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Split flow continues aloft, with upper system in southern branch
moving east over eastern Oklahoma and weak wave entering the Great
Lakes. Some mid and high cloud was able to reach east central Kansas
Friday evening while a weak front associated with the northern wave
was slowly sinking south into Kansas.

Sunny skies should be the rule for much of today with any lingering
cloud with the southern wave moving off this morning. Lower level
temps are a bit lower behind this system, and with weaker winds and
a slightly more moist airmass in place, expect highs to be a few
degrees cooler than yesterday. Record highs for today are in the
upper 70s so another day of record-breaking heat is unlikely. Lee
troughing develops late in the day and southerly winds increase off
the surface through the night. This will bring higher dewpoints
north and rather high RH values, but mixing from this wind may be
enough to keep fog from forming. Winds this evening will be light
and there should be a least a few hours of good radiational cooling
until cirrus move in. Will go ahead and keep a patchy mention late
in the night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Warm temperatures are expected from Sunday through Thursday with
highs generally in the 60s to low 70s. Moisture will return Sunday
night as the low level jet increases. The storm system continues to
move out in two parts with one wave moving northeast into the
northern Plains and remaining west of the cwa. The second part is
the longwave trough that will move through the Plains on Monday and
Monday night. The trough axis should move through the cwa on Monday
with the trough axis moving through by 06Z Tuesday. Currently it
looks like a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Sunday night through Monday early afternoon with decreasing clouds
from mid afternoon into the evening hours. 850 mb winds become
southwest during the morning Monday shunting the deeper moisture
eastward into Missouri. Models show a few hundred jules of mucape
Sunday night through Monday morning so will continue to mention
thunderstorm chances.

Models continue to bring the next storm system out across the Plains
Thursday and Friday. Current model runs continue to show differences
with the placement of the system with some solutions further south
than others which will affect the precipitation types and
temperatures. It is likely that the area will see rain and a few
thunderstorms then a transition over to rain and snow for the area.
Temperatures cool back to normal values for the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Have continued with a VFR forecast with model forecast soundings
backing off on stratus/fog development across east central KS. It
appears there is more mixing than earlier RAP solutions had
expected. As a consequence, LLWS has become a greater concern
with radar profiler data showing 30KT to 40KT at around 1500 feet.
This is expected to be short lived as the gradient relaxes while
the closed upper low weakens and the low level jet is expected to
diminish by about 10Z.




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