Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Primarily a wind forecast through the period. Winds variable for
the first several hours as outflow from overnight convection
continues to influence the taf sites. Winds become southeast then
southwest through the period. Could see VCTS near TOP/FOE late
afternoon into the evening but too late in the period to add yet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67





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