Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

An upper level trough was moving eastward into the Great Lakes
region while an upper level ridge was building across the Rockies.
High pressure was continuing to the build into the state behind a
cold front that was located from southern Missouri and southwest
Oklahoma. WInds will be on the decrease with the weakening pressure
gradient this evening and tonight as the surface high moves closer.
High thin cirrus clouds will move through overnight, but should
still allow for good radiational cooling overnight. Expect
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s.

On Saturday, the surface high will be parked from eastern Nebraska
and eastern Kansas in the morning gradually moving off to the east
in the afternoon hours. This will keep winds light for much of the
forecast area. Southeast winds will develop on the back side of the
retreating surface high across central Kansas. Warm advection along
with rising heights will yield highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Depth of moisture and strength of capping are the main challenges
for much of this forecast period. South winds return some moisture
northeast into east central Kansas Saturday night. Will maintain
small pops late Saturday night into early Sunday for this but
could be only some patchy drizzle. The stronger winds mix down
during the day Sunday for very warm day with 850mb temps in the
mid teens Celsius. Have gone on the high side of guidance for
temps, which brings elevated fire danger, though dewpoints should
stay high enough to keep Extreme values in check. Next front still
looks to pass through dry late Sunday night into midday Monday
with the cap in place. This brings highs back to the mid 60s to
mid 70s with gusty north winds again elevated fire weather values.
Isentropic lift over the boundary increases Monday night into
Tuesday and late Tuesday night into Wednesday as upper flow
intensifies, with easterly wind components keeping highs in the
50s. Could see some wintry precip mix in near diurnal temp
minimums in the north but for the most part temps remain well
above freezing. A strong upper trough moves into the Central
Plains late in the week, though timing differences remain, as does
some indications of capping. Will keep some mention of
thunderstorms given uncertainty and strength of this system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with light winds
generally less than 9 kts out of the north, remaining light but
turning out of the southeast by tomorrow afternoon/evening.




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