Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 262333
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST CONTINUES PROPAGATING EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KS. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND NORTHERN AR WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN SD.

FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEST DRYING
IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE RIDGE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF DRY AIR WITH THE SYSTEM. THINK THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
FALL APART THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP WITH NO
REAL FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONE
CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LAST NIGHT`S RAINS, ADDING MOISTURE
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, MAY OFFSET THE WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM. AT
THIS POINT THINK IT WOULD BE RATHER LOCALIZED TO THE FAVORED LOW
AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. THEREFORE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 60 FOR MOST SPOTS ANTICIPATING A CLEAR SKY. FOR SATURDAY, 850
TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AT LEAST
850MB ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE THINK WITH A LITTLE INSOLATION THAT
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON`S.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TRENDING WARMER A DEGREE
OR TWO TOWARDS THE MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN A CHALLENGE.
MODELS KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THOUGH HAVE A HARD TIME
BUYING INTO NAM DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70F WITH A LACK OF RECOVERY/SOUTH
WIND BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY. WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6C/KM, HAVE KEPT POPS GENERALLY BELOW 30. AT THIS POINT ITS HARD TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM WITH MODERATE
SHEAR AND LIKLEY HIGH CLOUD BASES. THE MEAGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ONLY BRING A MINOR COOL-DOWN FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS NOT EXACT AT THIS TIME WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACKING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST WITH ITS AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 90S AND THEN COOL WITH CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON EVENING RAINS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE SUMMERTIME FEEL REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S INTO
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR PREVAILS WITH THE ISOLATED SHRA SHIFTING SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
TEMPORARY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 02Z WITH SOME
INDICATION OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING AT KTOP/KMHK. SIGNAL ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE WEAK INVERSION
LAYER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLEAR
SKIES...CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR 3 SM AFTER 10Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...DRAKE/65
AVIATION...BOWEN



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