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000
FXUS63 KTOP 131136 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DEPARTING TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY
OFF THRU THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGHS ON THE WEST COAST HELP TO REAMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGING
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS
USHERED IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...THE GRADUALLY VEERING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. A COUPLE OF
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY...BUT BETTER MOISTURE AXIS
AND WAA REMAINS TO THE WEST. THESE MODELS HAVE ALSO INITIALIZED
POORLY ON CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS...SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
DRIER MODELS WHICH KEEP THE CWA DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS OCCURS PRIMARILY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
THE LLVL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING AND VEERS OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO NOT
ONLY INCREASES WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CWA NORTHWARD BUT ALSO LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. STILL...THE
BETTER FORCING AN HIGHER QPF APPEARS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES...WITH SOME LOWER
END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE NEBRASKA BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THINK THE GFS MAY BE A
LITTLE OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF PROG SINCE IT TOO HAS A SIMILAR
FORECAST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CAP STRENGTH AS THE NAM. IN ANY
CASE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST KS THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CAP WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SUGGESTING THAT A SURFACE BASED STORM COULD FROM. HOWEVER THE
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEB. IT LOOKS UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THERE IS ALREADY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KS WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POP. WE SHOULD SEE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN TO CENTRAL KS
WHERE DEEP MIXING COULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ONLY MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
AROUND 875MB IN EASTERN KS...SO WILL KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER 90S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH WITH NO OBVIOUS
WAVE MOVING ACROSS KS. ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE FOR PRECIP
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CONVECTION ACROSS NEB COULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OFF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO GOOD
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO EASTERN KS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
WITH FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS FOR
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP. MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
EASTERN KS FROM THE PREV FORECAST. THEN THE SECOND CHANCE WILL BE
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY SUNDAY. THIS CONVECTION FORMS AN MCV
THAT PROPAGATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AND MCS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN PREV RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION OF WHERE THE POTENTIAL MCS WILL TRACK. WILL CARRY A
LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY COULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 90S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL KEEP A POP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS MONDAY FOR THE
POSSIBLE MCS STILL EXITING THE AREA. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH
THIS LOOKS TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DUE TO THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. SO HIGHS SHOULD TREND WARMER INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

WILL KEEP TERMINAL FCSTS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL ALSO KEEP
A DRY FCST AS WELL SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW THAT CONVECTION
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WILL IMPACT ANY TERMINALS SITES. VEERING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...63