Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260854
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
254 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located off
the CA coast. The upper trough will shift east into the desert
southwest by 12Z SUN. A down stream upper level ridge will amplify
across the plains Today and Tonight.

A lee surface trough will deepen through the next 24 hours across
eastern CO. Southwesterly winds will increase to 10 to 20 MPH across
the CWA with the higher sustained winds across north central KS
where wind gusts may approach 30 MPH during the afternoon hours.

Forecast soundings show that most areas across the CWA should mix
close to 900mb during the afternoon hours which will allow high
temperatures to range from the upper 50s across the southeast
counties to the lower to mid 60s across southwest counties.

Tonight, A stronger LLJ of near 50 KTS will develop across western
OK into central KS. This will begin to transport deeper moisture at
the 850mb level, northward after midnight. Forecast soundings show
that the capping inversion above 850mb will be too strong for any
elevated storms to develop. Low stratus clouds will probably develop
as the deeper moisture advect northward across the CWA during the
early morning hours of Sunday. Overnight lows will probably occur in
the late evening hours in the lower to mid 40s and then become
steady or slowly rise after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

By Sunday morning, an upper level trough will be over the northwest
US, while a surface low deepens over the Rockies.  A strong pressure
gradient will exist over northeast Kansas in the morning,
strengthening through the afternoon.  Southerly winds approach Wind
Advisory criteria with sustained winds up to 30 mph, and gusts up to
45 mph. Will hold off on any headlines for winds now, but it will
need to be monitored.  Chances for rain and thunderstorms begin
Sunday morning, although the better moisture and lift does not
arrive until the afternoon.  As the trough digs into the Central
Plains, the low level jet strengthens ahead of it bringing
additional lift to the area.  Deep layer shear looks to be on the
order of 50-60kts, with 0-1km shear near 30-40kts.  While shear is
impressive, instability looks to be greatly lacking, with the NAM
being the most robust in central Kansas indicating up to 700 J/kg.
Per soundings, the area looks to be capped throughout the day;
however, if there is enough instability and any storm can tap into
this narrow axis of CAPE late afternoon, there is a small chance for
a few severe storms to form. If any storms do form, they would
quickly diminish in the evening.

Monday morning the upper low would just north of Nebraska, with
northeast Kansas in the dry slot bringing precipitation to an end.
The GFS and ECMWF differ slightly in the general pattern from here,
but overall northeast Kansas remains dry though Friday. Temperatures
become more seasonal from Tuesday onward, with highs generally in
the upper to mid 40s.  Low temperatures after Tuesday will be below
freezing each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected, Winds increase to around 12kts by 16Z
then decrease and back to the south after 00Z Sunday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53



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