Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KTOP 260851
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ON THE DECREASE AS COMPLEX MOVES TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  WV IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY WEAKLY CAPPED AND
BECOMES FREELY CONVECTIVE TOWARD THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
STARTING TO CAP OFF TO CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURES GRAZING THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
CARRY ISOLD TO SCT POP CHANCES AND DECREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS START OUT BREEZY IN THE DAY AND DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GO AS STORM CHANCES MOVE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ON SUNDAY A DECENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE GFS IS
FORECASTING MUCAPE AROUND 15OO J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS THEREFORE COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK
KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA EACH GIVING US A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

FOR THE 06Z TAFS, A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WHILE THESE STORMS SHOULD
EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER THIS MORNING, MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN BORDERLINE IFR CIGS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ009>012-024-026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HENNECKE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.