Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 060844
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...JOHNSON


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