Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 192154
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
454 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
454 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...ongoing...ending by around sunset.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...along and north of I-44...limited risk south.
ONSET...ongoing...ending by around sunset.

DISCUSSION...

Strong and gusty south winds are combining with very warm and
relatively dry air to yield conditions conducive for fast fire
spread. Conditions will improve as sunset approaches.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Strong south to southwest winds are expected to shift south on
Monday ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Wind gusts will not be as
strong as they are today, however. At least limited fire danger is
expected across east central and southeast Oklahoma, and perhaps
west central Arkansas.

A back door cold front will bring the potential for a few storms
Tuesday night and Wednesday, first over northwest Arkansas and
then eventually spreading south and west across eastern Oklahoma.
Due to the fact that ridging will prevail aloft, wind shear will
not be conducive for severe weather.

The next storm system to affect our area for the latter half of
the work week. Current indications are that a band of rain and
embedded storms will move in from the west late Thursday night,
moving across our area thru the morning and early afternoon
hours. If this timing forecast holds, instability will be limited
and so will the severe threat. It is possible that a narrow
instability axis could develop mainly over far eastern Oklahoma
ahead of the Pacific front by late Friday afternoon, in the wake
of the morning activity. If this occurs, severe weather potential
will be greater. However, there is still several days to iron out
the details, so stay tuned to later forecast updates.

Indications are that the upper air pattern the following week will
be an active one, from a severe weather perspective. It would be
a good idea to review your severe weather action plans so that you
will be prepared for more active weather.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Lacy



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