Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 220547 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.AVIATION UPDATE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST...CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
VSBYS REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS IN RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND DUE TO FOG
ON SUNDAY. /22

.MARINE UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING OVER THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 7 FEET...WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS ON
BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS.OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST...FOLLOWED BY
DIMINISHING WINDS SUBSIDING SEAS. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. /22

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES WAS TRACKING EAST TO
EAST NORTH EAST AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH. LARGE
ENVELOPE OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS...MORE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. HELICITY
VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH BUT WILL ALMOST NO CAPE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG STORMS UNLESS THE WARM SECTOR CAN MANAGE TO MOVE ONSHORE
BEFORE THE LOW PASSES. IF THIS HAPPENS...SOME STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES AWAY. WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. HIGH ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUDINESS. /11

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY
DAY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO RAIN IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SO THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BUT LOWS THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 30S...NEW
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT LOWER BUT WILL WAIT A CYCLE BEFORE BITING. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST...MAY SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STILL DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  67  50  68 /  80  30  10  10
PENSACOLA   58  68  53  67 /  90  40  10  10
DESTIN      61  70  58  68 /  90  40  10  10
EVERGREEN   52  65  47  67 /  90  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  52  62  47  67 /  90  40  10  10
CAMDEN      52  61  47  65 /  80  60  20  10
CRESTVIEW   55  70  50  70 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















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