Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 310404 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1004 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS FOR INLAND WINDS. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 6-9 KNOTS BECOMING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 6-9 KNOTS BECOMING EASTERLY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS MORNING RESULTED IN GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LIGHT FREEZE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH
UPPER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REBOUND MUCH ON SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 07/MB

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO MOISTEN THE DEEP LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
JUST ENOUGH MOISTENING/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THAT
AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/MIDSOUTH REGIONS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ALL RESULTS IN
RAIN BECOMING LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN TOTALS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40-50 KT...ENHANCING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY. WHILE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WITH MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ADDING AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CANADIAN
HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EAST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...AND WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...WHICH MAKES IT HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIME FRAME OF THE
MOST LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY HIGH
END CHANCE POPS (50%) FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ONCE TIMING ISSUES ARE RESOLVED...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REQUIRED. IT WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN DRIER AND COLDER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE STORM SYSTEM AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT AND STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      32  59  48  66  45 /  00  00  10  60  50
PENSACOLA   37  58  51  66  49 /  00  00  10  70  50
DESTIN      39  58  52  66  52 /  00  00  05  70  50
EVERGREEN   30  60  41  64  44 /  00  00  10  70  60
WAYNESBORO  29  59  44  63  41 /  00  00  10  60  60
CAMDEN      29  59  41  61  42 /  00  00  10  60  60
CRESTVIEW   31  61  43  67  50 /  00  00  10  70  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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