Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 260015 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
REMAINING PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS CREATING ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MOVING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PCPN TO OUR EAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING (MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-65). AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT OUT...
FINALLY SWEEPING THE LINGER SFC FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NW-N WIND FLOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER EAST AND
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NEARER AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID TO UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THU. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE FALL LIKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH SAT THEN FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THU NIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTH BY LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BUILDS SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND RESULTING IN SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUN IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTEN WILL BE THE ONSET OF ADVECTION FOG MOSTLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE...MADE LITTLE TO NO TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH THU AND FRI
WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 30S FRI MORNING THEN WARM TO THE MID 40S TO
THE WEST AND THE UPPER 30S TO THE EAST SAT THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT LOWER A BIT SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARILY A WIND FCST...WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS RELAX BRIEFLY AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER NE-E-SE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  62  40  60  38 /  30  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   40  62  43  60  40 /  70  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      45  62  46  58  43 /  70  00  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  61  34  58  35 /  50  00  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  32  64  36  58  34 /  20  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      35  60  34  57  34 /  30  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  61  37  61  36 /  70  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$







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