Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 021131 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WIN
OUT...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING HOT AND DRY. ENOUGH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH INTO
THE LOW AND MID 90S. DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. LOWS
TONIGHT REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TO MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. PATCHY FOG CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED INLAND...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE GULF
WHILE LOWERING HEIGHTS/HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS SLIPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF...POCKETS OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY MAXIMUMS EMBEDDED IN THE EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW (<1000 J/KG)...SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF STORMS ONLY NEAR 30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF AND A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROF...WINDS LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR
AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S INTERIOR TO UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST.
/10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MOVING INTO THE CLOSE OF THE
WEEK...A MORE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP WITH A HIGH LEVEL
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPPER LOW TO BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE
02.00Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
CANADIAN GEM ARE SUPPORTING THIS. THIS FEATURE IS SLOW TO
MOVE...POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH THE WINDOW OPEN FOR CONTINUED PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROF TO THE EAST...AND THE EVOLVING
UPPER LOW...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON
LABOR DAY WEEKEND ACTIVITIES AT TIMES. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROF
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH
ALSO PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR STORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S INTERIOR TO UPPER 80S COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO ALABAMA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS TO MOVE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS CHANGE
LITTLE WITH LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND FLOW WHICH WILL BE MORE
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ONSHORE
LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  75  91  72  93 /  20  10  40  20  40
PENSACOLA   91  77  89  75  91 /  20  20  40  20  40
DESTIN      89  79  89  77  89 /  20  20  30  20  40
EVERGREEN   94  74  93  71  94 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  72  94 /  20  05  30  20  30
CAMDEN      93  73  93  71  94 /  20  05  30  20  30
CRESTVIEW   93  74  92  71  94 /  20  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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