Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 300024
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
724 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/00Z issuance...Afternoon convection quickly dissipating over the
region...although a few very isolated showers or storms will continue
(primarily over coastal counties) until shortly after dark. No mention
of convection overnight or Monday...although isolated showers and
storms will again be possible Monday afternoon. Otherwise...mostly
clear with only few to scattered high clouds tonight and Monday with
some scattered lower cumulus Monday afternoon. VFR ceilings/vsbys
through the period. Sfc winds predominately light and variable
overnight...becoming light north to northeast early Monday morning
then south to southwest during the afternoon on monday (especially
near the coast). 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Mid level shortwave ridging
continues to stretch from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Central
Gulf Coast region this afternoon, while surface high pressure was
also meanwhile building over the northern Gulf. The afternoon
seabreeze was advancing inland, and radar at 3 PM showed isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the north of this
feature. SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows MLCAPE values averaging around
1000 J/KG across the region, and a strong storm or two with brief
strong wind gusts over 40 mph, frequent lightning and heavy rain
could develop this afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the
seabreeze. Otherwise, a hot and somewhat muggy afternoon is ongoing
with the ridge axis extending overhead, with temperatures reaching
around 90 to the lower 90s over most inland locations.

Isolated to scattered convection will be diurnally driven with lack
of upper forcing, so activity should diminish with loss of daytime
heating. Will have POPs falling below mentionable levels after 00Z,
with skies becoming mostly clear tonight. Overnight lows should
range from the mid to upper 60s inland, and 70-75 again near the
beaches. A similar pattern should persist for Memorial Day, with a
mid level ridge extending across the western Gulf, with the northern
periphery of the ridge axis near the vicinity of our forecast area.
A fairly moist airmass, with precipitable water values averaging
between 1.25-1.5" along with available instability(MLCAPE averaging
750-1500 J/KG), the advancing seabreeze, and perhaps a minor impulse
embedded on the periphery of the ridge will support carrying at
least isolated thunderstorms in the forecast again Monday afternoon.
Another hot day can otherwise be expected with highs in the lower to
mid 90s inland, and close to 90 near the beaches. /21

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Weak upper flow
pattern remains over the forecast area through the week. The area
remains between a broad upper trough to the west and TD Bonnie over
the Carolina coast. A weak sfc trough from Bonnie will continue
across the area. However, only isolated showers and thudnerstorms can
be expected each afternoon. Hot conditions continue with highs in the
upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. /13

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The GFS has come in line with
the slower ECMWF for the extended range. Both now agree on an upper
low cutting off in the base of the trough as it advances toward the
area late in the week. The upper low then slowly moves east through
the weekend. Therefore, still expect increasing chances of rain late
in the week into the weekend. Highs will start the period in the
upper 80s and low 90s before trending back into the mid and upper 80s
late in the period as rain chances increase. /13

MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will stretch across the
northern Gulf of Mexico through much of the week. A daily pattern of
light offshore flow at night, with light to moderate onshore flow
developing during the day will continue through the week. Wind
speeds may be a bit more enhanced over bays, sounds, and near shore
waters during the day with the enhancement provided by the seabreeze
circulation. Seas remain low through the period. /21

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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