Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 231000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MOS IS CONTINUING WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN INLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES CAPE STARTS
BELOW 400 J/KG AND STARTS CREEPING TO ABOVE 1500 LATER TODAY ALONG
THE COAST. LI`S BECOME SUB-ZERO SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALONG INTERSTATE
10 TO MOBILE TO BAY MINETTE AND NORTHEAST TO ANDALUSIA BY 18Z. THEY
FALL TO ALMOST -5 JUST 20 MILES OFF DESTIN AND ABOUT -5.5 OUT 60
MILES OFF DESTIN. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION IS ABOUT -1 TO -2 SO IT
DOES APPEAR THIS FRONT THAT BROUGHT US A COOL DAY FRIDAY IS LOSING
ITS STRUCTURE. ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB IS INDICATED WEAK BY A FLAT
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK POST FRONTAL LAYER
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 550 MB AS WELL AS WEAK DYNAMICS...AND THIS
MAY BE WHAT IS TELLING MOS TO KEEP POPS LOW. POPS FROM THE EURO ARE
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUCH
INVERSION OFFSHORE. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...THE HRRR BRINGS RAIN IN
OFFSHORE WHICH MORE OR LESS HONORS THE OTHER INDICATORS OF CAPE AND
LI AND WHATNOT...AND WITH NCAR ENSEMBLES ALSO DOWNPLAYING
CONVECTION...WE ARE GOING TO GO FOR ISOLATED AND THAT MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WE WILL KEEP CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 60S...AND LOW 70S FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP HIGH LEVEL TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE WESTERN US AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
FLORIDA INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BETWEEN
THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE
EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST TAPS AND
PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WELL UP TO ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MODIFY TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MAY 24TH. WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUNDAY MORNING...FORECASTERS EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE COAST...WHICH SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFT OFFERED BY THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY LOOKS TO AID IN COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG CONTAINING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE.

WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS...ELEVATED SWELL...BREAKER ACTION AND SPRING TIDAL
CYCLES...RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR SHORES
SUNDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
69 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY TO FRIDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER
TROF AXIS EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEK. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT...NOW IN THE MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COASTAL ZONES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT STARTING OFF AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST LATER TODAY. WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY
BECOMING CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE SHORELINE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING LIGHT
EAST WINDS WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY.
BAYS AND AREA WATERWAYS WILL BE MOSTLY CHOPPY. THE SWAN CAME OUT
CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WNA AND GWW WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS WITH
THE BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  70  86  72  84 /  10  20  40  30  60
PENSACOLA   85  73  84  74  84 /  10  20  30  30  60
DESTIN      84  74  85  75  84 /  20  20  30  30  60
EVERGREEN   87  67  89  69  86 /  10  10  30  20  50
WAYNESBORO  88  66  86  69  83 /  05  10  40  40  60
CAMDEN      87  68  88  69  84 /  05  10  30  20  60
CRESTVIEW   89  66  90  69  87 /  20  20  30  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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