Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 012013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
313 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING EVERY SO SLIGHTLY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE EAST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPERIENCES A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY SUBTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO OUR
EAST AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW BACK INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY REGIONWIDE (AND
40-50% ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE SEA-BREEZE). THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST BY NOON AND PROPAGATING
INLAND WITH TIME. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF LAST NIGHT`S MIN TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO GUIDANCE...WENT A TAD CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S DEG(F) OVER
THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 89 DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND. STORMS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS AS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
THE MID WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SFC TROUGH DRAPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT/SUN IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH...THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGING...AND
PERSISTENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED/THU WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A
LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY NEXT MONDAY ON HOW FAST THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.18Z.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND (I.E., MOVING AWAY FORM
COASTAL TERMINALS). SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KT (ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL
SITES) DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
(SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST). BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS
DURING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TUESDAY MORNING. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...THE 8 SEC SWELL IS DRIVING THE BULK OF THE 3-4 FEET SIG
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MAINLY SLOW ROLLERS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY WEB CAMS
AROUND THE REGION). THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GLFMEX DECREASES.
OTHERWISE... REGION GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS DECREASE IN
SPEED ON WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN ENE-NE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CLOSES OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS THEN RETURN TO AN ESE-SE DIRECTION BETWEEN MID- AND
LATE-WEEK. NO HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE  HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
DESTIN      78  90  80  91  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  94  72  95  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  72  93  72  94  71 /  10  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      72  94  71  95  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  95  72  95  70 /  10  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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