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000 FXUS64 KMOB 220547 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .AVIATION UPDATE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST...CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. VSBYS REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS IN RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND DUE TO FOG ON SUNDAY. /22 .MARINE UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING OVER THE MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 7 FEET...WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS ON BAYS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS.OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS SUBSIDING SEAS. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. /22 ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES WAS TRACKING EAST TO EAST NORTH EAST AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH. LARGE ENVELOPE OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS...MORE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. HELICITY VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH BUT WILL ALMOST NO CAPE...NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS UNLESS THE WARM SECTOR CAN MANAGE TO MOVE ONSHORE BEFORE THE LOW PASSES. IF THIS HAPPENS...SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES AWAY. WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. HIGH ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUDINESS. /11 .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO RAIN IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SO THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BUT LOWS THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 30S...NEW GUIDANCE WAS A BIT LOWER BUT WILL WAIT A CYCLE BEFORE BITING. /11 && .FIRE WEATHER...RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST...MAY SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STILL DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. /11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 55 67 50 68 / 80 30 10 10 PENSACOLA 58 68 53 67 / 90 40 10 10 DESTIN 61 70 58 68 / 90 40 10 10 EVERGREEN 52 65 47 67 / 90 60 20 10 WAYNESBORO 52 62 47 67 / 90 40 10 10 CAMDEN 52 61 47 65 / 80 60 20 10 CRESTVIEW 55 70 50 70 / 90 50 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
