Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 181749 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM THE AREA. SOME
FOG/POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AM EXPECTING
CL3EAR SKIES FOR MOST OF SATURDAY.

/16

&&
.UPDATE...WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. ORGANIZED RAINS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
MORE EAST...BEING MORE CONFINED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA TO
ACROSS SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS REQUIRES AN UPDATE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
REMOVES THE WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE RAIN COVERAGE HAS LESSENED.
REMAINDER OF WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 18.23Z/6 PM CDT LOCAL. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

MARINE...MARINE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

/16

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND
INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES DROPPED FROM
THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY THROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR
TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COVINGTON...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











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