Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 190954
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
454 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A surface ridge of high
pressure will continue to extend from the Mid-Atlantic region and
southwestward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast
region today and tonight. An upper level ridge of high pressure will
meanwhile build eastward across much of the Gulf of Mexico and
extend northward across our region through tonight. The deep layer
dry and subsident airmass will hold in place across the area today
and tonight, with precipitable water values remaining under an inch.
POPs will remain nil today and tonight underneath mostly clear
skies. Surface dewpoints may modify slightly today, but an overall
dry airmass will remain in place with continued northeast to east
surface flow. Highs today should trend a few degrees warmer across
the region, with readings generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Lows tonight remain fairly cool, ranging from around 50 to the mid
50s over interior areas and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s
closer to the coast. /21


.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...The upper ridge over
the area will move eastward as an upper trough approaches from
the west. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge of high pressure will also
shift eastward, allowing east to southeast winds to develop on
Saturday. This will bring deep layer moisture back northward into
the area. As moisture increases, chances for showers and
thunderstorms also increase by late in the day on Saturday. Highs
will be in the low to mid 80s with lows moderating as moisture
levels increase. /13


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Global models agree on
digging a deep trough over the plains and moving eastward with an
associated cold front moving through the area sometime on Monday.
The GFS sends the front through Monday morning while the ECMWF is
about 12 hours later as it cuts off the upper low farther west
than the GFS causing the slower motion. The Euro solution also
develops a more expansive warm sector across the Gulf Coast with
some higher 850mb winds, which would favor the potential of strong
storms. Due to the large uncertainty, will maintain high rain
chances for the Sunday and Monday time frame. A deeper trough digs
over the east late in the period sending another cold front
southward across the area. While this front will not have any
moisture to work with, it will send a much colder and drier
airmass into the deep south for the second half of next week. /13

&&

.MARINE...A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east flow
will persist across the marine area through Friday as surface high
pressure continues to extend from the Mid-Atlantic region to the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate southeasterly flow will return
this weekend as the surface ridge shifts eastward and a cold front
approaches the Mississippi Valley region. There will be an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms over the marine area
this weekend, especially going into late Sunday and Monday as the
front approaches the marine area. A moderate to strong offshore flow
will follow the passage of the front, which currently looks to be
sometime late Monday or Monday night. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  58  82  65 /   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   82  62  82  68 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      82  64  82  68 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   81  51  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  80  51  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      79  49  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   83  53  83  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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