Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 030558
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
UPDATE FOR 03.06Z AREA FORECAST...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...VISIBILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN RA/FG
AND CEILING AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 500 FEET. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z...BUT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL 18Z IN
SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

SHORT TERM...MULTIPLE ISSUES IN THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN FOGGY ALL
DAY AND JUST AS MOST OF THE FOG HAS STARTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON IT
SHOULD COME CRASHING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MRONING. LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CHANCE
OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

VERY RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AND EVEN
THOUGH FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THINGS SHOULD CHANGE
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FOG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WILL INITIALLY BE THE
THICKEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

TUE THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH
SETS UP FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SW INTO THE BAJA...YES THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY TO THE BAJA. WHILE THIS OCCURS A STRONG S/W EMBEDDED IN
THE UPSTREAM WILL DIG OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOUTH AND BRING ONE MORE BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS JUST STARTING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON WED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BUT
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE WITH AND POST FRONTAL. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN ICE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP
TO AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. IN ADDITION THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW
WITH LL TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS FALLING SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT LEADING TO
A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE
ECMWF IS HAS A SMALLER WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN THAT SAID IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 6/9Z THU AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING TILL 15/18Z THU. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF NW TO SE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT THEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FURTHER SOUTH SOME AND A TAD FURTHER
EAST. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S AT THE COAST AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S. /29/

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET SOCKED IN AGAIN. IFR IF NOT
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LASTING TILL 18Z TOMORROW. /CAB/

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ALL BAYS...SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  73  61  76 /  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   59  72  61  75 /  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      59  70  61  72 /  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   58  76  60  76 /  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  57  75  61  76 /  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      58  76  61  75 /  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   57  76  60  77 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$


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