205
FXUS64 KAMA 270001
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
701 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Northerly winds continue to gust this afternoon behind the early
morning cold frontal passage. Look for these winds to slowly die
down this evening as models begin to see an upper-level ridge
build over the Panhandles. This ridge will keep weather rather
benign for what remains of today with afternoon temperatures only
in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into Monday, weather looks to
start very quiet for the Panhandles with afternoon high
temperatures rising into the low 90s for the holiday. However
behind the scenes, models are expecting a stationary low to slowly
set up just to our west with a stationary high building over the
Gulf Coast. This set up will allow for flow at the lower and mid
levels to shift to a more southerly and/or southeasterly
direction, which will begin to funnel moisture into the
Panhandles. This is where weather could become interesting as many
of the CAMs are expecting this flow shift to occur early enough
that we may be able convect and create weak isolated thunderstorms
for Monday evening. Confidence in this potential isnt the best
with the southeast Panhandles having the best chances at 15 to
20%. Regardless, expect for chances to get better in the overnight
as the above mentioned set up looks to stick around and funnel
more moisture up into the Panhandles.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to grown for
Panhandles this week as models continue to see the week ridge hold
a surface low just to our west for the midweek. This low will work
in tandem with a stagnate high pressure system off the Gulf Coast
creating southerly/southeasterly flow across this Panhandles. This
flow will in turn push good moisture across the Panhandles in the
lower levels with many models also see moisture advect in at the
mid level with the 700mb theata-e. As it stands, many models are
expecting PWAT values to rise near or above one inch starting
Tuesday and stay there clear through Thursday. With the moisture
in places over the Panhandle, many models expect the incoming
short-waves to move through and take advantage of said moisture by
producing thunderstorms and showers each day. Tuesday and Thursday
in particular, look to be our big days with many of the models
already seeing the strongest short-wave disturbance those
afternoons, which will increase the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandles. Of course, there
is some day to day features that may serve to inhibit or enhance
the potential, such as linger thunderstorms and showers overnight
or even stubborn low-level stratus decks holding for the day.
Regardless, decent accumulation looks to be possible across the
Panhandles with latest giving a 40% chance at bare minimum of
seeing greater than half an inch or rain by Friday. Unfortunately,
this set up looks to break down Thursday evening as models see the
southern axis of a trough push through and break down the stagnate
low. Residual moisture will hang around through the weekend, but
expect much lower chances for showers and storms with temperatures
beginning to warm back towards the 90s.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

TAF sites remain VFR through the new 00Z period. Winds will be
calm overnight and through the morning. Some breezy, southeasterly
winds will be had at all sites tomorrow afternoon. Concerns for
precipitation at AMA tomorrow evening are very low at this time;
therefore, no mentions have been made.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  92  60  86 /   0   0  20  50
Beaver OK                  54  92  57  85 /   0   0  20  40
Boise City OK              49  87  53  83 /   0   0  10  50
Borger TX                  56  96  62  90 /   0   0  20  50
Boys Ranch TX              54  95  60  90 /   0   0  10  50
Canyon TX                  54  93  60  87 /   0   0  10  50
Clarendon TX               56  91  61  85 /   0   0  10  60
Dalhart TX                 50  89  55  85 /   0   0  10  50
Guymon OK                  51  91  55  85 /   0   0  20  50
Hereford TX                54  94  60  89 /   0   0  10  40
Lipscomb TX                56  91  60  84 /   0   0  20  40
Pampa TX                   56  91  61  84 /   0  10  20  60
Shamrock TX                57  93  61  85 /   0   0  20  60
Wellington TX              58  94  63  86 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55