Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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440 FXUS64 KAMA 260819 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 319 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A cold front moving through the Panhandles early this morning will keep temperatures down about 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday. Northwest winds will be up in the 15 to 25 mph range, which will be lighter than yesterday. Winds will decrease with the setting sun and they will turn around to the southeast by Monday morning. Convergence along a surface trough that will be found across the southwest Texas Panhandle Monday afternoon may serve as a focus for an isolated thunderstorm in the south-central Texas Panhandle by late afternoon. Temperatures in the lower 90`s in the vicinity of the trough will also help the instability. More isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Raton Mesa Monday afternoon. The flow aloft may then bring them into the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle Monday evening. Any thunderstorms that develop may have some gusty winds with them as the boundary layer remains fairly dry. && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Hope for rain looms ahead this week as we finally appear to have multiple opportunities at precipitation from Tuesday onward. As the waters of the Gulf and off the southern Sierra Madre of Mexico show signs of warming, increasing southerly return flow and 700mb theta-e advection will pull quality deep layer moisture to the region throughout the week. As of latest trends, PWATs over 1 inch could exist as far west as the TX-NM border intermittently, as perturbations within the flow periodically pass overhead this week. The most prominent disturbances appear to be on Tuesday and Thursday, when we could see better potential for strong to severe storms. Which days see more rain and storms, if any, will also likely depend on several factors such as previous days` convection, remnant outflow boundaries, and moisture recovery to the area. Regardless, deterministic and probabilistic ensemble guidance continue to ping the eastern Panhandles for the best chance to see higher rainfall amounts (30-60% chance to exceed 1" of rain through Saturday). In general though, the entire CWA will still have realistic shots at measurable rain and storms this week, as NBM POPs remain ~20% or higher each day area-wide. While the rain chances are no given, warm temperatures in the 80s should persist almost every day, with the exception of Wednesday when cloud cover may keep us a tad bit cooler in the upper 70s. Winds look to be benign this week, out of the southeast at 10-20 mph. Overnight lows will be on the warm side thanks to constant moisture/warm air advection, only bottoming out in the upper 50s to low 60s any given morning. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 West to northwest winds around 10 knots tonight will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts after sunrise. Winds will then decrease and become more northeasterly by early this evening. Skies are expected to remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 88 56 90 60 / 0 0 20 20 Beaver OK 88 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 10 Boise City OK 82 49 87 51 / 0 0 0 10 Borger TX 90 56 94 61 / 0 0 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 90 53 93 59 / 0 0 10 10 Canyon TX 89 55 91 58 / 0 0 10 10 Clarendon TX 90 57 90 61 / 0 0 0 10 Dalhart TX 85 49 89 53 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 85 50 90 54 / 0 0 0 10 Hereford TX 91 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 88 55 90 60 / 0 0 0 10 Pampa TX 87 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 91 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 10 Wellington TX 93 58 93 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...15