658
FXUS61 KBGM 050806
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
406 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is expected on Wednesday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and
continuing overnight. A slow moving upper level low pressure
system brings cooler temperatures and more showers to the
region starting Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 AM Update

Added in some valley fog where skies are mainly clear, from
Elmira to Binghamton northeastward. Also tweaked overnight lows
down a degree or two, again owing to the clear skies over the
northeast portion of the CWA.

Previous Discussion Below

Quiet weather is still expected through the night. Some mid and
high level clouds should prevent fog formation. Also watching
the potential for some low clouds to sneak into the Wyoming
valley as well overnight.

Tomorrow will be another warm day, with highs well into the 80s
for most of the area. Most of the day should remain dry, but an
approaching warm front from the south will kick off some
scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon/early
evening. Warm front continue moving into the area overnight and
scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue. Model guidance
has really cut back on the amount of rain that is expected with
this first wave of showers and storms tomorrow night with the
best instability and forcing holding off until Thursday. Started
to pull back on PoPs and QPF some from the previous forecast,
but will wait another model cycle and see how the CAMs respond
as we get a little closer before pulling back too much. NAMNest
is really sparse with any convective activity through the
overnight hours, while the HRRR is more aggressive at this time.
Based on the little amount of instability with MUCAPE values of
just a couple of hundred joules on model soundings, starting to
lean towards less coverage in convection Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM Update...

An upper level trough sitting over the region will be the main
weather driver for the forecast period, bringing unsettled
weather.

Isolated shower chances remain Thursday night as a shortwave
pushes east of the region and a cold front drags through the
CWA. We loose the deep moisture as the shortwave exits so any
showers that do remain should be brief and light. Temps Thursday
night will be cooler than the night before, but still above
average for early June, dropping into the mid to upper 50s.

Friday will see a brief quiet period in the morning before
another shortwave digs into the region and brings chances for
afternoon/evening rain showers and thunderstorms. The moisture
available for this shortwave will be much lower as it will come
from central Canada and the Great Lakes. PWATs under 1 inch are
expected and QPF amounts are expected to be under 0.25in. Temps
on Friday will be cooler with WNW flow across the region behind
the cold front. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected.

Chances for isolated rain showers remain Friday night with the
upper level trough overhead and a weak shortwave moving into the
region. The best chance for showers will be north of the
Southern Tier, but chances are low(less than 30%). Temps Friday
night will be in the low to mid 50s.

Rain chances remain across the area Saturday as another
shortwave ripples through the longwave trough overhead. Moisture
is lacking again without a tropical airmass available so QPF
during the day Saturday is currently expected to be up to
0.10in. With the continued WNW flow pushing the cooler Canadian
airmass overhead, temps Saturday will top out in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM Update...

The upper level trough will remain overhead through Monday,
bringing chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Sunday and Monday. The pattern shifts Monday night as ridging
builds into the area and the upper level trough finally moves
eastward. Some uncertainty remains as to how fast the ridge will
be able to kick the showers out, so we may see some rain showers
Tuesday, but the trend is leaning towards it being dry. Temps in
the 60s for Sun and Mon, but a warming trend begins Tuesday
with the return of SW flow, pushing highs into the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
135 AM Update

VFR conditions are expected for most of the area through most of
the taf period. There are sct to bkn high level cirrus clouds
streaming over the area early this morning; this should prevent
fog formation in most locations. ELM could still see some light
fog/mist for a few hours toward daybreak...for now covered this
with an MVFR TEMPO in the taf from 08-12z due to the high level
of uncertainty in near term guidance for fog formation.

Otherwise, the rest of the taf sites are expected to remain VFR
this morning, afternoon and early evening. Then, scattered rain
showers move in from SW to NE after 00z this evening bringing
MVFR/MVFR fuel alt restrictions to AVP, BGM, ELM and ITH toward
the end of the taf period. There is a low chance for some
thunderstorms in this timeframe as well, but probability of
thunder was too low to include in the tafs this far out in time.
SYR and RME remain VFR through the end of the taf period
(06/06z).

Winds become southerly/southwest later this morning at 8-15 kts,
then turn back southeasterly in the evening hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms around with MVFR Fuel Alt and even IFR
restrictions likely. Lifting back to mainly VFR after around
18z Thursday afternoon.


Thursday night through Sunday...

Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM/MWG