373
FXUS61 KBGM 140733
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and
strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main
threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like
weather this weekend. Next week will be hot and humid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM Update...

A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain
showers and chances for strong to severe storms. As this front
moves through our area, chances for showers and storms begin in
Central NY between late morning and early afternoon, and will
move south and east through the day. Guidance has been
progressing and pushing the best chances for developing severe storms
more south and east, where NE PA and the Catskills will be the
most likely locations to see possible severe storm development
in the late afternoon and into the evening hours, with the main
threat bring strong to damaging winds.

Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being
slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today
and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front
that will be passing through today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the region Saturday night through Sunday
night. Mainly clear skies and light winds will result. Some patchy
fog can not be ruled out Sunday morning where rain occurs this
afternoon and evening but for most locations the amount of drier air
coming in should prevent full saturation. A chilly start Sunday with
lows in the 40`s followed by fairly pleasant highs in the 70`s.
Temperatures start to trend warmer Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure should gradually shift south and east of the region.
However, this will develop a fairly strong upper level ridge across
our area. Outside of the stray shower or thunderstorm due to heating
of the day, a fairly long dry period is expected through Thursday.
With southerly flow the airmass will become increasingly hot and
humid with the transition day on Monday. We are going a bit lower
than the new 00Z 6/14 ECMWF which would imply several days with
highs around 100 for most of the region and even higher heat index
values. This would be a high impact and crushing heat wave for the
region.

However, even the ensemble blend nudged slightly warmer is still
giving highs well into 90`s for most of the region Tuesday through
Thursday resulting in a heat wave. This will be compounded by
overnight lows only falling into the upper 60`s and low 70`s.
Dewpoints may mix out and trend slightly lower in the afternoons
given inverted V soundings. Even taking that into account the
forecast projects widespread 100 degree heat index values Tuesday
through Thursday afternoons.

A reminder that the definition of a heat wave officially is three
days or longer with highs of 90 degrees or higher. Giving the
increasing confidence of a heat wave, now is the time to make plans
and organize supplies to beat the heat next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through from north to south early Friday
morning and through the day. Showers and storms will accompany
the front, but ceilings look to remain VFR even with convective
activity due to these storms likely to be scattered. We included
a PROB group in each of the terminals, but confidence on actual
storm initiation due to decreased instability for their
respective times, especially for NY terminals, is rather low.
We`ll re-evaluate for the 12Z package for storm probabilities.

S-SW winds drop less than 8 knots overnight. Winds shift to
west on Friday at 5 to 10 kts with some gustiness. A period of
LLWS affects KRME, KSYR, and KITH during the overnight as core
of winds pushes into the region over the up valley SE wind
direction.

Outlook...

Friday night...Ceilings becoming VFR. Areas of dense valley fog
restrictions possible late.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL