209
FXUS63 KBIS 030833
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
333 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog this morning.

- Another round of thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday
  morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- Strong northwest winds Tuesday through Thursday.

- Temperatures will be near to slightly above average early in
  the week, then return back to below average.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

In the wake of last evening`s convection, calm winds and clear
skies has allowed fog to form in a moist lower atmosphere. So
far, we do not need a Fog Advisory. Fog is very dense in the
Devil`s Lake Basin so we will keep an eye on it. As always,
the fog should burn off as the sun rises.

We are currently in between two waves. The shortwave from
yesterday and the incoming upper low. As of 3am the positive
vorticity side of the wave is in central Montana with a few
showers. By late morning that should advect into the state, with
a surface low pressure in southeast Montana. Showers and
thunderstorms should wait to form until the afternoon when
diurnal heating and diffluence aloft increase. They`ll move west
to east out of Montana just like yesterday. Temperatures will
also be increasing at 850mb with a thermal ridge which will help
not produce severe storms making the rising air parcels slow
down. A cold front, located at the leading edge of the trough
axis will move through after midnight. It will move through our
east around sunset Tuesday, ending our chances for rain. The
upper low will continue to spin up in Canada, filtering cooler
air down backing the cold front. Tuesday`s highs will be much
cooler in the low 70s. Winds on the backside of the front will
be breezy but sub-advisory level. We stay in cyclonic flow
through Wednesday, before a large western CONUS ridge moves in,
drying our weather pattern until next week maybe. Wednesday
another cold front drops in from Canada with a stronger high pressure
bubble. We will most likely need a Wind Advisory then. Our
confidence in this is high as this signal has been there the
last few days. Early next week another upper low might develop
and move in, bringing the showers back to North Dakota.
Temperature for the next 6 days will be at or below average
(average is mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR with patchy fog and light winds. Higher confidence for dense
fog is around KMOT and east. CLouds will increase through the
day, staying VFR. Another wave of thunderstorms will move west
to east starting in the afternoon and ending overnight.
Conditions could dip to MVFR in them with gusty winds. Otherwise
winds will be southeast around 15kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith