Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241855
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
155 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The main focus for the short term is thunderstorms (and potential
severe thunderstorms) late this afternoon and evening.

An upper level shortwave is currently moving across North Dakota
this afternoon. An accompanying cold front is currently
stretched along western North Dakota. Most short-term models
depict scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern North
Dakota near the center of the upper level low with very little if
any convection along the cold front through the afternoon. The
cold front will likely light up later this evening, but by then it
should be about out of our area and entering eastern North
Dakota.

Instability and shear are less than expected this afternoon across
most of the area. Better moisture/shear profiles are present
further east. This should limit the severe threat to the far
eastern James Valley (location of best moisture) and the Turtle
Mountains (location of greatest forcing). Hail up to an inch and
strong winds up to 60 mph are possible in the strongest storms.

Tomorrow...the warm up begins. Westerly warm air advection and a
building upper level ridge will lead to temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s. Breezy winds and low humidity may lead to fire
weather concerns, however, most locations are quite green at this
time so that may reduce the critical fire danger threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

This weekend will be quite warm, with some locations approaching
their record high temperatures. With an upper level ridge building
in and either a combo of downsloping winds or compressional
warming we will likely see widespread temperatures in the low 90s
by Saturday.

The upper level ridge begins to break down Sunday as an upper
level low builds in over the mountain west. This low will remain
nearly stationary Sunday through Tuesday. As a result we will see
cooler temperatures and the chance for widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. The rest of the week looks
rather active with chances for showers and thunderstorms nearly
every day.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may impact KISN and KJMS this afternoon, otherwise
conditions should be calm with winds shifting out of the west
behind a cold front this late afternoon/evening.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ


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