Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Morning fog and high temperatures today are the main focus in the
short term period.

Currently, a large upper level low/trough was off the west coast,
with an amplified upper level ridge over the Rockies and Front
Range, resulting in northerly flow over the Northern Plains. An
upper level shortwave was diving south out of the Hudson Bay area,
with a surface cold front over northern Saskatchewan and
northwestern Ontario moving south.

Fog had developed over northwestern and north central North Dakota,
with some locales indicating dense fog with visibilities 1/4 mile or
less. Expect fog to continue developing during the morning hours,
likely including the higher elevations along the Missouri Coteau.
Have addressed this with a special weather statement rather than
issuing a dense fog advisory.

Today the aforementioned Canadian cold front is forecast to enter
northeastern North Dakota, moving southwestward into north central
and the James Valley later today. Meanwhile the west coast
low/trough moves onshore, nudging the upstream upper level ridge
into the western Dakotas. This will result in continued warm
advection over western North Dakota.

Looking at highs today in the low to mid 30s north through the James
Valley, with temperatures again reaching into the lower and mid 40s
over parts of southwestern North Dakota.

Tonight a potent shortwave ejecting from the base of the advancing
western trough reaches the central plains near
Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas. This will result in a southerly flow aloft
over the plains reaching well into Canada. A lee side surface low
develops over eastern Colorado, and an increasing southeasterly
surface flow develops this afternoon and continues tonight over
western and south central North Dakota.

The cold air associated with the Canadian high in northeastern North
Dakota and the warm air associated with the Colorado low pressure
system in southwestern North Dakota will result in lows tonight
ranging from around 10 above in the Turtle Mountains to the lower
20s in the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Thursday through Friday the upper level shortwave over Colorado
develops/moves east/northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley,
bringing a large area of precipitation to the southern and central
plains, and into the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Temperature
profiles suggest a wintry mix of rain, snow, freezing rain and
freezing drizzle for western North Dakota. The greatest forcing will
remain south of our area, with only light amounts of precipitation.

Global models are consistent with bringing another low out of the
Rockies on Sunday, moving east across the central US through
Tuesday. There is high uncertainty about its track and how much
precipitation will make it into our area. The consensus of the
models warrants mentioning a chance of rain or snow Sunday through
Monday night for western and central North Dakota.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The only hazard to aviation tonight will be patchy fog. Widespread
snow melt continues to add some low level moisture to the atmosphere
and expect patchy fog to form after 09Z KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS.  Too
much uncertainty to go MVFR conditions so kept VSBYS 4-6 miles for
now. otherwise VFR after 15Z. Then a weak cold front will move into
northern North Dakota impacting KMOT with MVFR ceilings after 03Z.




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