789
FXUS63 KBIS 110009
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
709 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
  evening across northern North Dakota.

- Temperatures will cool down to the 70s for most locations on
  Friday, before warming back up again for the weekend.

- A more active pattern returns for the start of next work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A cold frontal boundary, with a southwest to northeast
orientation, is in the process of passing from northwest to
southeast through the state. Along the front, a severe
thunderstorm has developed and is currently over cental
Bottineau County. The storm is gradually moving southeastward
into northern McHenry County, and golf ball sized hail has been
reported. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible as the front moves through this evening. However, the
severe threat should begin to diminish as the sun sets. That
said, a strong to severe storm or two overnight isn`t entirely
out of the question.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains as cold front continues to push into the
northwestern North Dakota this afternoon. The low level thermal
ridge is elongated from the southwest to northeast which has
brought back warm temperatures across the state this afternoon.
Some compressional warming may be enhancing heating across the
central portion of the state this afternoon. Thus, high
temperatures today are forecast to climb into the the upper 80s
to mid 90s. A surface low over the Minot radar is starting to
kick off storms across the northeast with some showers forming
in the Northern James River Valley. Instability slowly is
increasing out across the eastern half of the county warning
area with around 1500-2000 j/kg of MLCAPE, however the effective
shear is under 20 kts. The moderate CAPE will likely lead to
upscale thunderstorm development, but the lack of shear will
keep storms from getting organized in the James River Valley.
However, there is a chance for isolated strong to severe storm
across the Northern half of the state this afternoon and
evening. The CAMs are pegging a clusters of storms moving in
from the southern Saskatchewan into the northern half of the
state tonight with some decent UH tracks. This is definitely
possible as the CAPE across the Northern half of the state is
forecast to remain around 1500-2500 j/kg SBCAPE and around 30-40
kts of effective shear. An upper level trough is forecast to
dig across southern Saskatchewan tonight leading to the
initiation of these storms. The main hazards are ping-pong sized
hail and strong wind gusts up to 60 mph. CAMs have the storms
weakening as they lose instability through the night.

We will see the return of surface smoke from Canadian wildfires.
In the northwest there is already some sites reporting
visibility reductions in Plentywood, MT and Estevan, CA. The
HRRR smoke model pushes smoke in with the front and even more
smoke as the upper low moves through the region. Smoke will
likely cause visibility reductions across the state tonight and
tomorrow.

The aforementioned short wave is forecast to move into North
Dakota late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will likely
bring forth an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
severe storms are not anticipated with this system. Showers and
thunderstorms will move out of the area by Friday afternoon as
temperatures cool into the upper 60s north to the lower 80s
southeast. Surface high pressure will settle into the region
leading to clearing skies however smoke may linger.

Weak ridging will amply across Western CONUS this weekend
leading to warming temperatures. Highs are forecast to return
to the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the 90s by Sunday. Warm
temperatures may linger into Monday depending on the timing of a
cold front. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
region early next week with a broad trough forecast to move
across the region. This will cool temperatures back down into
the 70s through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A passing cold frontal boundary from northwest to southeast will
bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through
much of the period. A few strong to severe storms are possible,
especially this evening with lower chances for severe weather
overnight. Despite the diminishing severe threat, the time
period where showers and thunderstorms are expected to be the
most widespread (scattered in nature) is overnight tonight and
through Friday morning. Pinpointing the exact timing of any
showers and thunderstorms remains difficult, therefore PROB30
groups were used at terminals with the highest confidence.

Trailing the cold frontal boundary is a transient line of smoke
that will likely cause reductions in visibility at some
terminals. Generally speaking, visibility should remain VFR for
most locations most of the time, though drops down to MVFR/IFR
visibility are not out of the question. Also trailing the cold
frontal boundary is some MVFR stratus. This will mostly impact
western and north central ND late tonight and into Friday
morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken