Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200557
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1257 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

No notable changes have been made with this forecast update.
Blended in the current observations. Decreased cloud cover a bit
over northwest and north central North Dakota as current satellite
observations show scattered high clouds have already cleared the
area and are pushing to the south and east.

UPDATE Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Quiet weather continues over the area. Have updated forecast to
address some high clouds passing over the region.

UPDATE Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Quiet weather continues. Only change needed for early evening
update was to increase cloud cover a little bit over the northwest
and north central as some thin high clouds have pushed in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Clear and quiet tonight as high pressure settles over the area.
Will issue a frost advisory for most of the forecast area. Even
areas that are not in the advisory could see patchy frost, so if
you are on the fence, it doesn`t hurt to cover any tender
vegetation you have set out this spring. We did lean toward the
low side of guidance but this morning was below our given guidance
so this seems reasonable. A few of our normally cold areas could
see freezing temperatures but areal extent is not enough for a
freeze warning.

Sunny on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Mid level ridge and sfc high pressure maintain dry conditions for
Monday, along with a gradual warm up.

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday & Wednesday as the
ridge breaks down allowing mid level impulses to track through the
region. Temperatures continue to moderate into the mid 70s to
lower 80s both days, along with increasing moisture leading to
increasing instability for convection potential, especially west
and south near an approaching frontal boundary.

A weak upper level low over the Intermountain West mid-week will
lift northeast into the Northern Plains Thursday and spins over
the region into Friday. This feature and its associated sfc
boundaries coupled with instability and ample deep layer moisture
will bring decent shower and thunderstorm chances to the region
for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
this morning for NDZ002>005-010>013-018>023-031>036-040>047-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JJS



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