Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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858 FXUS65 KFGZ 101120 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 420 AM MST Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions remain for today. High pressure then begins to build over Arizona, leading to hot temperatures across the region for the middle of the week. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return to finish out the week, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION...Today...Dry and warm conditions are expected for today, along with decreasing high clouds. Some lingering moisture near the Arizona/New Mexico border may lead to a couple isolated showers near the Chuska Mountains, while the vast majority of northern Arizona will remain dry. Any shower that does develop will be very light and likely not produce any measurable rainfall. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure becomes amplified over Arizona during the middle of the week. Temperatures begin to climb as a result, with daytime highs nearing 10 degrees above normal. Heights maximize on Wednesday, leading to the warmest temperatures occurring then. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon, Marble and Glen Canyons, and the lower elevations of Yavapai County for Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday Night through Sunday...A cut-off low of the California Coast ejects off the Pacific late Thursday. As this happens, high pressure begins to loosen it`s grip over Arizona and shift into the central United States. Increased southwesterly winds and cooler temperatures ensue, along with increasing moisture. Thus, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late Thursday into Friday, especially for areas near and north of the I-40 corridor. Behind the low, dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures remain into the weekend. && .AVIATION...Monday 10/12Z through Tuesday 11/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds less than 10-15kts through the period. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/12Z through Thursday 13/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds W-SW10-20g25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Seasonably warm and dry today, with gradually dissipating cloud cover and light northerly winds near the New Mexico Border. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies and southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Warmer and dry on Tuesday, northwest winds 5 to 15 mph over the eastern zones, then southwesterly 10 to 20 mph elsewhere. Wednesday through Friday...Very warm and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday. West through southwest winds 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday and 15 to 25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Winds gusts around 30 mph possible Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system brings cooler temperatures and a chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms overnight Thursday night into Friday, especially north of the Mogollon Rim. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff