Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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611 FXUS65 KFGZ 072140 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 240 PM MST Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue, although they will peak today, with some cooling over the weekend. Any isolated showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern Arizona through Sunday. Another warming trend returns for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...The weak influx of moisture combined with high instability from ample heating is allowing for ample isolated storms to develop in far eastern Arizona today. This activity is expected to persist into the evening, especially for over the White Mountains. Activity will eventually diminish early tonight with the loss of heating. Over the weekend, the ridge over Arizona will weaken and shift east. This, combined with a weak trough settling in place to our west will help bring some small relief to our current heat. While POPs decrease for the weekend, high based convection is still possible with greatest odds over and near the White Mountains, though anything isolated forming over the higher terrain can not be totally ruled out. As we head into the start of next week, little change in the overall pattern is expected, so weather conditions will be the same for Monday and Tuesday, albeit warming slightly. However as we go into the middle and later parts of next week, the trough will start to move east while the high to our east strengthens. This will set us up for temperatures to warm several degrees again Wednesday, followed up by a slightly stronger (still minimal) push of moisture into the area, bringing high based convection and additional clouds to help bring temperatures back down by the later part of next work week. && .AVIATION...Friday 07/18Z through Saturday 08/18Z...Mainly VFR expected. Localized MVFR between KCMR-KFLG due to smoke. ISO TS/TSRA through 02Z along and south of a KRQE-KSOW line. SW winds 15-25 kts, with gusty/erratic winds near storms. Winds become light and variable after 03Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 08/18Z through Monday 10/18Z...VFR expected. ISO TS/TSRA, mainly Sunday aftn across eastern Arizona. SW winds 10-20 kts each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected to continue through Saturday with a slight cool down on Sunday. Smoke will continue to impact areas around and to the west of Flagstaff during the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly on Sunday across eastern Arizona with gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning. Minimum RH values between 5- 15% both afternoons with decent overnight recoveries. Southwest winds 10-20 mph on Saturday and Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures gradually warm each day with continued dry conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible across eastern AZ on Wednesday. Minimum RH values will be between 5-15% with southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff