551
FXUS62 KMFL 121755
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
155 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A pretty sloppy setup this afternoon as precipitation overspreads
South Florida. A frontal boundary remains stalled out over central
Florida this afternoon as a few shortwave impulses pivot into the
area and interact with the anomalous tropical moisture (PWATs
2.3-2.5 inches) that remains pooled over the area. Areas of the
interior have already seen broad swatches of 4-8 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, while the East Coast has just begun
to see accumulations increase with 2-4 inches across portions of
Miami- Dade and Broward counties. As rainfall continues, portions
of the region could see several additional inches, enhancing the
concern for considerable flash flooding especially for areas that
already saw 4-6 inches of rain on Tuesday. The possibility for
severe weather (tornadoes and gusty winds) also remains a
secondary threat through the evening. Some of the discrete cells
today have shown rotation signatures and ACARS soundings support
a threat for additional quick spin-up tornadoes. With ample cloud
coverage and precipitation over the area, high temperatures will
remain in low-mid 80s over much of the region.

The only notable change to the synoptic pattern on Thursday will
be the development of an intensifying sfc. low over the stalled
boundary to our north, just off the SE Coast. This low (which may
eventually acquire subtropical characteristics over the Gulf
Stream) will shift NE in the late week period, but looks to at
least in the short term keep the subtropical moisture tap in place
over our area through Thursday (i.e. the classic cyclone moisture
tail). With the potential for significant additional rainfall
(HREF PMMs would indicate areas of 2-4 inch totals possible) and
likely saturated ground made the decision to extend the Flood
Watch through Thursday evening with this morning update.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An active subtropical jetstream will become entrenched over central
Florida, just downstream of a positively tilted major short-wave
trough that will impart on the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for a
fetch of deep tropical moisture to remain entrenched over South
Florida, thus resulting in a prolonged period of widespread rainfall
will continue through the remainder of the week. Hydrologic concerns
will be the primary focus through the remainder of the week,
primarily owing to antecedent rainfall from previous days, and the
repeated bouts of strong thunderstorms capable of producing very
high tropical rainfall rates. With precipitable water remaining
above 2.0 inches, expect favorable conditions for flooding and even
flashing flooding - particularly for urban locations. The most
intense rainfall will develop in tandem with upper level impulses
that trek through the CWA through this period. As far as rainfall
totals through Friday, expect 4-8 inches for the western half of the
region, and 2-6 inches for the eastern half of CWA (including
metropolitan east coast), with locally higher totals possible. These
totals are subject to deviate based on how the forecast evolves in
the coming days.

A stationary frontal boundary will gradually dissolve, as low-level
circulations develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico and coastal
FL/GA respectively. This will likely stretch/divert moisture away in
opposite directions away from the region, though there will still be
lingering deep tropical moisture such that heavy rainfall will still
be a concern through the weekend. By late Saturday/early Sunday, a
backing of low-level winds will be realized as expansive Bermuda
ridge of high pressure expands southwestward. An easterly flow
regime will likely become re-established, which will allow for
periods of heavy rainfall in the morning along the east coast, with
more coverage generally along interior and western portions of the
CWA. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be the primary concerns again,
though the threat should be diminished in comparison to earlier in
the week. Nevertheless, cannot rule out the potential for flooding
through the weekend, mostly conditional on measured rainfall up to
this point.

High temperatures will begin to increase slightly through the period
with mid 80s expected on Friday and slightly increasing each
afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 90s again by the Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

All terminals could continue to experience periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions this afternoon as repeated rounds of SHRA/TSRA
overspread across South FL. IFR TEMPOs from 18-22Z may need to be
amended/extended as conditions evolve, with LIFR restrictions
possible as well. Rain chances decrease overnight, but a few
rounds of SHRA could still impact terminals through the night.
Outside of storm outflows generally southerly winds - gusty at
times - will prevail through the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Near cautionary southerly winds will persist over the area waters
today as the area remains south of a stalled front and associated
surface low. These winds will decrease Thursday into the late
week period as the low progresses northeast into the Atlantic
waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms remain likely through
much of the upcoming week resulting in periods of locally higher
winds and seas. Outside of storms wave heights should remain 3 ft
or less through the forecast period.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  85  76  86 /  90  80  90 100
West Kendall     75  87  74  87 / 100  80  90 100
Opa-Locka        77  87  76  88 /  90  80  90 100
Homestead        76  87  75  86 / 100  80  90  90
Fort Lauderdale  77  84  77  86 /  90  80  90 100
N Ft Lauderdale  77  85  76  87 /  90  80  90 100
Pembroke Pines   77  88  77  89 /  90  80  90 100
West Palm Beach  75  85  75  87 /  80  90  90 100
Boca Raton       76  86  76  87 /  90  80  90 100
Naples           77  86  76  86 /  80  90 100 100

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr/ATV
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...ATV