Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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687 FXUS62 KMFL 100525 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Widespread rainfall is likely through much of this week, with periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. Latest forecast update yielded a noticeable uptick in PoPs for tomorrow. QPF guidance is still not well defined in terms of confidence intervals, as there is a vast disparity between low-end and high- end totals. Nevertheless, expect a much different week that what we have experienced thus far in June; numerous showers and thunderstorms, with periods of heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding (especially later in the week). && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An upper level trough continues to move off into the Atlantic today and upper level ridging briefly builds in before the next system starts to approach tomorrow and will be the catalyst for a prolonged wet period for later this week. Convection today will be primarily diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms. Morning sounding and ACARS data shows much drier air aloft today, however PWAT values are still in the 1.8-2 inch range. With light steering flows, slow moving storms will once again pose an urban flood risk across the metro. High temps this afternoon will be in the lower 90s, and with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, peak heat indices will again be over 100 degrees. Some locations may approach advisory criteria, especially the longer they stay dry today, however with convection expected to develop across much of the metro this afternoon, there won`t be enough areal coverage to warrant issuing an advisory, but folks should still take precautions for the heat and humidity if they have outdoor plans today. Convection over land dissipates this evening and convection overnight will be confined to the Atlantic and Gulf waters, with some occasional showers possible along the coasts. Low temps tonight will range from the low to mid 70s around the lake and interior South FL, to around 80 close to the coasts. Next shortwave pivoting around the base of a longwave trough over the eastern US will dive down towards the deep south US on Monday, with a surface front slowly moving south towards the northern Gulf and eastward draping across northern FL. Locally, the southerly flow will start to pull in more tropical moisture, with HREF PWATs increasing to 2-2.2 inches across South FL during the day. Convection should be more widespread especially during the afternoon into early evening hours. As will be the theme for the entire week, urban flooding will be a concern with any slow moving thunderstorms, especially if multiple storms pass over the same area in a short period of time. High temps will be in the lower 90s, and will likely occur early in the afternoon before convection starts to overspread the area. Peak heat indices will again top out over 100 degrees, but afternoon convection will likely prevent any headlines from being needed. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A very wet and unsettled weather pattern is shaping up across South Florida for the middle and the end of the week. A mid level shortwave will dive southeastward through the Southern Plains on Tuesday, and then towards the Texas/Louisiana coastline as well as the Gulf of Mexico for the middle to latter portion of the week. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked in the western Atlantic as a surface trough pushes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will keep a south to southwesterly wind flow in place across South Florida throughout the rest of the week which will allow for deep tropical moisture advection to take place during this time frame. The latest guidance continues to show PWAT values increasing to 2.5 inches or higher for Wednesday through Friday. With this increased tropical moisture flowing into the region, rainfall will become numerous to widespread across the area during the middle to later portion of the week. There could be periods of heavy rainfall during this time frame which could lead to the potential for flooding concerns across the region through the end of the week as multiple rounds of heavy downpours train over the same areas. While the exact details remain uncertain in regards to specific amounts of rainfall through the middle and the end of the week, confidence is increasing that a multiple day widespread rainfall event could take shape across the area. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With increased cloud cover in place, temperatures will be held down across the region through the middle and end of the week. High temperatures during this time frame will generally remain in the lower to mid 80s across most of South Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours, however numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely develop by late morning/early afternoon and propagate northward through the afternoon period. Light and variable winds this morning will trend S-SW around 10kts during the day, outside of thunderstorm outflows. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters today and through each day of this upcoming week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected today through mid-week with southerly winds 5-15 kts and seas 2 ft or less. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An increase in tropical moisture is expected this upcoming week, with PWAT values in excess of 2.5 inches possible which would be around seasonal maxes. While still too early to pinpoint exact timing and rainfall amounts, periods of heavy rain are possible from Tuesday through at least Friday across South Florida. Repeated bouts of heavy rain may result in flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Flood Watches may be needed this upcoming week as details come more into focus. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 80 86 78 / 70 50 90 90 West Kendall 92 77 87 76 / 70 50 90 90 Opa-Locka 93 79 88 78 / 70 50 90 90 Homestead 90 78 86 77 / 60 50 80 90 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 86 78 / 60 50 90 90 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 86 77 / 70 50 90 90 Pembroke Pines 94 80 89 78 / 70 50 90 90 West Palm Beach 93 77 86 75 / 60 50 90 90 Boca Raton 93 78 88 77 / 70 50 90 90 Naples 91 78 87 78 / 60 80 90 90 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Carr