175
FXUS62 KMFL 072305
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
705 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

After a somewhat active afternoon, conditions are beginning to
quiet down as instability diminishes heading towards sunset. A few
showers or maybe a thunderstorm could be possible overnight,
although predominantly dry conditions are expected. A similar
afternoon is expected for Saturday, although warming temperatures
aloft should decrease lapse rates and lead to more run of the mill
type thunderstorms. No significant updates with this forecast
package.  &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

 - Hot and humid conditions continue today and throughout the
   weekend, with peak heat indices in the 105 to 112 range.

 - Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon through the weekend,
   with some strong storms possible.

South Florida will remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through
Saturday under the base of a mid-level trough that stretches up
across the Eastern US. South-southwest flow in the low levels
will continue to pump a hot and humid airmass into the region,
with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices in
the 105-112 range for most areas. This has prompted Heat
Advisories along the East Coast metro counties for today.
Saturday has the potential to be a few degrees warmer than today,
so another round of Heat Advisories or even Excessive Heat
Warnings may be required across nearly all of South Florida. The
only potential relief for residents would be when scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms temporarily move
through and cool things down. With relatively cool mid-level temps
around -8C and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg each afternoon, a few
strong to even storms cannot be ruled out, especially along the
sea breeze. Most storms will be garden-variety, capable of
producing gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy
downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

As the mid level trough pushes off into the western Atlantic, mid
level ridging will try to build into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico for the second half of the weekend. Heading into the early
portion of the week, another amplifying mid level trough will dig
across the eastern seaboard which will quickly begin to flatten
the mid level ridge over the region. At the surface, the frontal
boundary stalled out to the north will help to keep the south to
southwesterly wind flow in place across South Florida through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. With plenty of
moisture in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will develop each afternoon and evening as the sea breezes push
inland and interact with each other. The highest chances will
remain across the interior and east coast. Hot temperatures will
continue on Sunday and Monday as temperatures climb into the lower
to mid 90s area wide. Peak heat index values could range from 105
to 110 each day with some localized areas potentially rising
higher than 110 across the interior.

Heading towards the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty
level in the forecast rises as a mid to upper level disturbance
pushes towards the Gulf Coast states and into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, a broad disturbance may slowly try to
organize during this time frame. This will allow for deep tropical
moisture advection to take place across the region during the
middle of the week. Regardless of whether or not any development
takes place, the potential for increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be in place for the middle to latter portion of
the week as southerly wind flow continues. This will also
introduce the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding
during this time frame, however, the exact details of where this
sets up remains highly uncertain with differences in guidance
remaining in place. With the increased cloud cover possible for
the middle portion of the week, this could provide some relief
from the hot temperatures. This will continue to be monitored as
the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period with mainly dry
conditions expected overnight. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are likely Saturday afternoon although not high
enough confidence quite yet for TEMPOs. Reduced ceilings and
visibilities are possible within any thunderstorm activity. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the
coastal waters through the weekend and likely into early next
week, with winds in the 5-10kt range. Only exception will be in
the vicinity of any thunderstorm that forms, which will bring
brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas are expected at
2 feet or less across all local waters for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  79  91 /  30  80  40  60
West Kendall     76  93  75  93 /  40  80  40  60
Opa-Locka        78  93  78  93 /  30  80  40  60
Homestead        76  91  78  91 /  50  80  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  78  91 /  30  80  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  92  78  91 /  30  80  40  60
Pembroke Pines   79  94  79  95 /  30  80  40  60
West Palm Beach  76  94  76  93 /  30  70  30  60
Boca Raton       77  93  78  93 /  30  70  40  60
Naples           79  92  80  93 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto