662
FXUS64 KOHX 050659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A series of upper level disturbances will transverse west to
east across mid state region as morning hours progresses with a
more defined upper level shortwave passage expected as afternoon
hours progress. In an examination of several CAMs solutions, North
American model, and global models, slight differences in
convection development timing and movement noted, but they all
point toward the continuance of an atmospheric setup like we have
had across mid state region last couple of days supporting
scattered to numerous convection. A few thunderstorms could reach
strong thresholds producing gusty strong winds as afternoon MUCAPE
values generally range 1,000 J/KG to 2,000 J/KG depending on what
particular model leaned toward. Any severe thunderstorm potential
limited by not the most robust mid level lapse rates and lower
atmospheric shear values. With a consensus of model sounding
derived PWAT values as high as 1.8-2.0 inches, some of these
stronger storms certainly could produce at least brief heavy
rainfall resulting in localized flooding concerns. Highs today
will be around seasonal normal values.

As upper level troughing influences push eastward as tonight
progresses and quasi zonal northwesterly flow aloft becomes
increasingly established, and a surface cold front to our
northwest moves southeastward into mid state region during
overnight hours tonight, expecting best chances of showers
and thunderstorms to shift eastward of I-65 Corridor Region
as evening hours progress, with most convection limited to
Cumberland Plateau Region by daybreak on Thursday. Lows tonight
will continue to be on the mild side for the most part, generally
ranging in the mid 60s.

As dry northwesterly flow becomes a little more entrenched and a
secondary now dry cold front approaches from the northwest, a
seasonably warm day will be in store for our area with some
showers and thunderstorms lingering through morning hours across
Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday will be in low to
mid 80s, around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Thursday night through Saturday morning will highlight some drier
and slightly cooler air working into mid state region as surface
high pressure influences to our northwest influences our areas
weather pattern. Highs by Saturday afternoon will be on the
seasonably cool side ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s
for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region.
As Saturday afternoon progresses though, moisture will once again
work into mid state region resulting in isolated convection for
locations west of I-65 Corridor Saturday afternoon. Enough
moisture will be hanging around our area Saturday night through
Sunday Night along with now some embedded upper level disturbances
in northwesterly flow aloft to support development of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times. Coolest day of
entire forecast period will be Monday with highs generally only
in mid to upper 70s with lows Monday Night seasonably cool mainly
ranging in mid to upper 50s. Lingering showers and thunderstorms
are expected across southern and eastern portions through Monday
afternoon. Upper level ridging influences will build across our
area as Monday night into Tuesday progresses, with a slight warmup
expected with highs on Tuesday ranging upper 70s to lower 80s,
mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period although MVFR vis will
affect CSV early in the TAF period, with MVFR cigs at all airports for
a few hours later this morning. SHRA/VCTS will impact CKV this
morning, all airports between 14-20Z, then a low probability of
additional activity later today. Light south/southeast winds this
morning will increase and become southwest during the day today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  68  87  62 /  90  70   0   0
Clarksville    81  64  85  59 /  60  20   0   0
Crossville     79  63  80  55 /  80  80  30   0
Columbia       84  67  87  60 /  80  60   0   0
Cookeville     81  66  82  57 /  80  80  20   0
Jamestown      80  64  80  56 /  80  80  20   0
Lawrenceburg   84  67  86  60 /  80  70  10   0
Murfreesboro   85  66  87  59 /  80  80  10   0
Waverly        81  65  85  59 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Shamburger