960
FXUS64 KSJT 240556
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1256 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Most of the convection has now exited the area off to the east,
although a moist and unstable air mass remains. CAPE vales above
5000 J/Kg with little convective inhibition left and shear values
of 45 to 50 knots. However, dryline remains fairly diffuse and
not making only slow progress mixing east into a moist air mass
full of clouds, although visible satellite is showing a little
better cu development along the dryline across the western Concho
Valley. There does not appear to be much support aloft with
shortwaves now east of the area. Latest runs of the CAMs show very
little convection for the rest of the afternoon and evening,
focusing mainly along the dryline across Oklahoma and then along
some outflow boundaries across North Central Texas.

Given the air mass and its potential, and the agitated Cu field
developing to the west, will pull the mention of storms farther
west into the Concho Valley and Big Country this afternoon, but
will limit to 20% for now given the lack of upper support.

Dryline makes better progress across the area on Friday, with
again the CAMs showing almost nothing for storms. Best chances
are certainly east of the area for tomorrow afternoon and will
keep POPs mainly out of the forecast for now. A little more
downslope winds for tomorrow will boost temperatures to near or
above the 100 degree mark for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Most attention on the shorter term today, but still looks like a
hot and dry forecast through Memorial Day for the area. Upper
level ridge moves across the area, helping boost temperatures into
the 100 to 105 range for some areas. Weak shortwave helps bring a
chance of storms, more clouds, and slightly cooler temperatures
for mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Stratus is expected to develop across the southern terminals
towards daybreak and linger through the mid/late morning hours
before scattering out to VFR. Haze will also be possible across
the area through the morning hours, reducing visibilities to
around 5SM at times. A weak cold front will move south across the
KABI terminal by 18Z, shifting winds to a northerly direction for
the afternoon hours. The front may make it as far south as KSJT
by mid afternoon before lifting farther north tonight. Any
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening should
remain east of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  64  98  72 /   0   0  10   0
San Angelo 100  63 103  72 /   0   0  10  10
Junction   102  68 105  75 /   0   0  10  10
Brownwood   94  68  95  72 /  10   0  10  10
Sweetwater  92  64  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       99  65 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       96  68  96  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24