937
FXUS64 KTSA 050208
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
908 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 855 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Currently two areas of convective focus are noted with one across
southern KS spreading ESE and another across central OK also
spreading E and S. The corridor of most unstable and lesser capped
airmass resides from central OK through SE OK and this general
zone will be favored for the more longer lived severe threat.
Further north the storms across KS have a history of producing
wind damage and will continue to spread into an unstable and
weakly capped airmass. Short term guidance is somewhat less
aggressive with this area of convection, however some degree of
severe wind potential is likely to remain given magnitude of
downstream instability. The overall coverage of storms will
steadily spread east and south through the early morning hours
with the severe threat ending from north to south. Updated
forecast will primarily focus on precip timing trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Aside from the early-mid morning hours, the rest of Wednesday
looks dry with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon for all of the
forecast area. Tranquil conditions will persist through the day
Thursday and into Friday as upper-level ridging builds over the
Desert Southwest and northwest flow aloft dominates over the
region. Daytime temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
on Thursday ahead of another cold front that is expected to push
through the forecast area late Thursday afternoon/evening. At this
time, storm/precipitation chances look very slim along the cold
front due to a subsident, dry and stable atmosphere in place.
Moisture and instability will increase late afternoon/evening
Friday and will set up ripe conditions for another MCS pattern
this weekend. Medium-range model guidance data indicate weak mid-
level perturbations ejecting off the Rockies and getting caught in
the northwest flow aloft, which would direct storm complexes into
Eastern OK and Northwest AR both Friday night and again Saturday
night. Details and the forecast for this weekend will continue to
be modified over the next few days. Another cold front is forecast
to arrive late Saturday night or early Sunday morning and will
usher in cooler and drier weather for the first half of next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Primary concern this forecast will be potential for a strong to
severe complex of storms moving across eastern OK and western AR,
with the 03z-09z time frame remaining favored. Storms will likely
be accompanied by a period of MVFR to IFR conditions for an hour
or two, along with potential for strong winds, possibly in the
40-50 knot range in parts of southeast OK. Once storms clear, and
following possible period of low ceilings into early Wednesday
morning, VFR conditions will prevail for remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  88  66  90 /  90   0   0   0
FSM   70  89  64  92 /  70  20   0   0
MLC   68  88  63  92 /  90  10   0   0
BVO   63  87  62  88 /  90   0   0   0
FYV   65  85  62  88 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   66  83  60  87 /  60  20   0   0
MKO   68  86  63  88 /  90  10   0   0
MIO   65  84  62  85 /  90   0   0  10
F10   67  86  63  89 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   70  86  63  91 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14