Area Forecast Discussion
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733 FXUS62 KTAE 061912 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A front moves through the region by Friday with rain chances in the forecast until passage.Drier weather arrives this weekend, but conditions will be hot Saturday through Monday. By next week, the pattern likely turns wetter.
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&& .NEAR TERM...
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(Through Friday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A cold front is forecast to move through the area from the north on Friday with a few showers and storms possible along and ahead of it. The best chances for showers and storms is over our Florida zones and far southern Georgia with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the primary threats. Despite the front, highs in the afternoon will still rise into the low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 95 - 105 degree range. Humidity will decrease in the wake of the front and help make for a much more pleasant evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The frontal boundary largely responsible for the near-term weather should be on its way east of the region heading into the weekend. Drier air filtering in from the north effectively squashes rain chances on Saturday, but will make for widespread highs in the 90s. Reduced humidity should keep heat indices from being much different from the air temperature outside of locations generally south of I- 10. Overnight lows range from upper 60s to low 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Sunday is shaping up to be hotter than Saturday as a ridge noses in from the west. A modest uptick in moisture will also cause humidity to rebound. The net result is a mid/upper 90s high-temperature forecast away from the immediate coast with heat indices a few degrees higher. Tallahassee`s daily record high for June 9th is 100 and it looks like there`s a good chance for that reading to be challenged. For Monday, ridging maintains its influence across the region, so expect another hot day characterized by widespread 90s and heat indices up to the low 100s. Low 70s will be common for minimum temperatures. There continues to be signals for a wet/unsettled pattern later next week thanks to another front dropping down from the north attendant to a broad Eastern US upper trough and tropical moisture surging from the south. Evolutionary details remain nebulous at this time, but the forecast has elevated rain chances, especially the farther south you go. Given the expected increase in cloud cover and precipitation, daytime highs get knocked down to the low 90s while low 70s stick around overnight/early morning.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 MVFR to IFR CIGs are currently being observed at DHN, ABY, and VLD this morning as a low cloud deck has quickly developed across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. These restrictions should lift in the next 1-2 hours. VFR conditions look to remain for the rest of today; however, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by 14 utc for DHN and ECP, and push eastward to all other terminals by the early afternoon. Coverage of thunderstorms looks to diminish within 1-2 hours of 00 utc this evening. Thunderstorms in the vicinity of airports may lead to brief MVFR to IFR restrictions. Outside of thunderstorm activity all terminals look to remain VFR. DHN could see more low CIGs develop Friday morning that may lead to LIFR restrictions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting SW winds 5-10 kts with 1-3-ft seas and a dominant period of 6 seconds. From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms. Little to no rain is expected this weekend. West to southwest winds generally 10 knots or less are forecast. Unsettled weather appears likely mid to late next week when a front approaches from the north and tropical moisture arrives from the south.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected across the area today and may produce gusty and erratic winds. Additional showers and storms will be possible tomorrow mainly across FL and far south GA ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will usher in a drier air mass for the weekend. High dispersions are possible each afternoon due to high mixing heights and relatively breezy transport winds. Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 There are minimal flooding concerns outside of potentially localized runoff issues from strong and/or slow-moving thunderstorms for the rest of today and tomorrow. Dry weather is expected this weekend, followed by a likely much wetter patten developing some time next week into beyond the extended period. In terms of rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage but are on a downward trend.
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&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee 73 95 71 95 / 20 40 10 10 Panama City 75 90 72 91 / 20 20 10 0 Dothan 71 93 66 91 / 20 10 0 0 Albany 73 94 67 92 / 20 10 0 0 Valdosta 73 94 70 94 / 20 30 10 0 Cross City 73 92 73 95 / 10 30 0 10 Apalachicola 77 88 75 89 / 20 40 10 0
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IG3 NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...IG3