-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
951
FXUS65 KABQ 070027 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
627 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The heat is on across central and northern NM and will continue
through Saturday before moderating a tad. A number of lower
elevation locales will rise up to the century mark or greater.
Virga showers and dry thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
and evening, then again later on Friday and will produce strong
and erratic wind gusts. Strong to potentially severe storms are
possible across far northeast NM late Saturday thanks to a
backdoor front. The backdoor front will supply moisture for a more
robust round of storms across eastern NM on Sunday as a
disturbance approaches from the southwest. Decent chances for
storms will persist across eastern NM Monday, but then high
pressure will strengthen over the area going into the middle of
next week with the return of drier and hotter conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The hottest day of the year is currently ongoing across northern and
central NM with all lower elevations well into the 90s due to a 592
dm are of high pressure overhead. Cumulus clouds have developed over
the higher terrain with the great coverage of well developed cumulus
over the Gila and Sacramento and Capitan Mountains early this
afternoon. Radar is also picking up on a few reflectivity echos
across these mountain ranges likely indicating virga activity. This
virga activity will produce some gusty and erratic winds of up to 50
mph through the afternoon and evening hours. Dry lightning from this
activity could cause a few fire starts as well so something to watch
the rest of the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, a backdoor front
has stalled out across northeast NM basically located somewhere near
Tucumcari extending northwest along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain. Hi res guidance is indicating the lift and moisture
behind this front to result in the development of some virga showers
and dry storms across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains and adjacent highlands this evening. Additionally, some
cumulus and a storm or two have developed in the Texas panhandle.
The outflow from these showers and storms could result in a few
showers or storms across far east central areas (Tucumcari and
CLovis) in the hours around sunset. Any activity should quickly
diminish after sunset with the loss of the daytime heating.

It will be a mostly clear to partly cloudy night with just some mid
to high level clouds. Moisture and east winds from the isolated
storms across the TX panhandle looks to surge southwest through
northeast and parts of east central NM and make it as far west as
the Santa Fe and ABQ metros early Friday morning. Given the lack of
pressure gradient but a noteworthy density gradient, a few gusty
winds of up to 25 mph will be possible at SAF and ABQ. The 592 to
593 dm upper high shifts and meanders a bit to east central and
southeast NM on Friday. The slight shift to the southeast will allow
some mid level moisture to move into western and southern NM
resulting in a greater coverage of virga showers and dry storms
across the central mountain chain and western mountains. In terms of
temperatures tomorrow, southern areas (along and south of I-40 will
be a touch cooler due to the slightly higher mid level moisture and
development of these virga showers and dry storms shortly after
midday. However, areas along and north of I-40 looks to have similar
temperatures compared to today due to less mid level moisture and
weak mid to upper level westerly flow on the northwest and northern
flank of the upper high. With that opted to issue another Heat
Advisory for the Farmington area and ABQ Metro due to forecasted
temperatures around 100 degrees. For northeast NM, the warming
compared to today will be most noticeable here as the westerly flow
on the north side of the upper high and the development of a weak
surface lee trough mixes the backdoor front northeast out of the
state. Clayton could get to 100 degrees (20% chance according to the
NBM probabilities) and Tucumcari could get to 105 degrees (21%
chance according to the NBM probabilities). A Heat Advisory might
need to be issued for some zones in east central and southeast NM.
There is a good coverage of major risk across east central and
southeast NM according to the experimental HeatRisk. However given
the low confidence, will let the midnight shift make the call.

Outflow from the virga activity over the southwest and west central
mountains looks to reach the ABQ Metro during the mid evening hours
just before sunset providing some relief from the heat. There will
also be outflow from the virga showers and dry storms over the
central mountain chain, impacting the surrounding highlands
including Las Vegas and Santa Fe. However, this will come with the
threat of gusty and erratic winds of up to 60 mph and patchy blowing
dust. SPC has included a marginal risk in northeast NM for Friday`s
severe weather outlook and this is due to the threat of gusty and
damaging erratic wind gusts of up to 60 mph from this virga shower
activity. DCAPE values are progged to between 1500 to 2500 J/kg for
most areas tomorrow, so most lower elevations could see microburst
winds from nearby virga activity. Convective activity quickly
dissipates after sunset with gradually clearing skies and mild to
warm temperatures overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The upper high center will continue shifting east away from NM on
Saturday, but a mid level ridge axis will remain over the area
with 500mb heights around 590dam bringing another day of well
above normal temperatures. Another Heat Advisory may be required
for Chaves County and possibly the middle RGV on Saturday. A
backdoor front will supply ample low level moisture to northeast
NM on Saturday for a round of late day storms, which may become
severe across Union, Harding and eastern Colfax counties.
Elsewhere on Saturday afternoon/evening, daytime heating triggered
convection will be limited by moisture availability and will
favor virga showers and dry thunderstorms to produce
strong/erratic wind gusts and very little measurable rainfall. The
upper high will continue to break-down and shift east on Sunday
as a weak Pacific low approaches from the southwest. Lower
pressure heights will correlate with lower high temperatures on
Sunday that will be closer to normal for early/mid June. The
Pacific low will bring very little moisture with it, so any
convection at that develops west of the central mountain chain
will once again favor strong/erratic wind gusts over measurable
rainfall. However, the backdoor front will make southward progress
across eastern NM and a more robust round of deeper convection is
possible Sunday afternoon/evening from the central mountain chain
eastward. The threat for flooding on/near the HPCC burn scar will
be elevated on Sunday, especially given slower storm motion. Look
for a repeat on Monday, although with convection focusing a
little further east into the eastern plains as an upper level
ridge pumps up over western NM and drier air spreads east across
the area. The heat is back on next Tue/Wed as the upper level
ridge transitions east over the state. The ridge will be followed
by another weak Pacific low next Thursday that is forecast to
bring a round of convection and windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Isolated and gusty virga showers and thunderstorms will continue
until sunset along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and
Sacramento Mountains, over the southwest mountains, and also
across the far east central and southeast plains. Friday afternoon
and early evening, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast areawide, except for the far southeast
plains from San Jon southward. Virga showers and some
thunderstorms along and west of the central mountain chain will
produce little or no rain with localized, brief, and erratic dry
microburst wind gusts potentially exceeding 45 KT both today and
Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Increasing midlevel moisture will result in more scattered
convective activity tomorrow, with dry storms in lower elevations
and wetter storms across the peaks of the southern mountains and
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph are
possible with any convection that develops both tomorrow. The chance
of wetting rainfall increases Sunday and Monday, especially along
and east of the central mountain chain as deeper moisture behind a
backdoor front and a upper level disturbance moves in. RH recoveries
overnight will trend better during this time frame as well. This
combined with the absence of strong westerly winds will limit
critical fire weather concerns. Hotter temperatures and lower
relative humidity values return Tuesday into mid next week as storm
coverage decreases due to high pressure building quickly back in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59 100  59  96 /   0   5   5   0
Dulce...........................  48  93  47  90 /   0   5   5   5
Cuba............................  56  91  55  89 /   0  20  20   5
Gallup..........................  51  96  50  92 /   0  10  10   0
El Morro........................  55  90  54  88 /   0  30  20   5
Grants..........................  53  94  52  92 /   0  30  20   5
Quemado.........................  58  90  55  88 /  10  40  10  10
Magdalena.......................  65  89  62  90 /   0  40  10  10
Datil...........................  62  89  59  87 /   5  40  20  20
Reserve.........................  52  92  49  92 /   5  30  10  10
Glenwood........................  67  96  65  95 /   0  20   5  10
Chama...........................  49  85  48  85 /   0   5  10  10
Los Alamos......................  64  90  63  89 /   0  20  20  10
Pecos...........................  58  90  58  89 /   0  20  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  52  87  51  85 /   0  20  20  20
Red River.......................  47  79  47  78 /   0  20  20  30
Angel Fire......................  41  85  43  82 /   0  20  10  30
Taos............................  53  93  52  91 /   0  10  10  10
Mora............................  51  88  54  86 /   0  20  10  40
Espanola........................  60  96  60  96 /   0  20  10  10
Santa Fe........................  62  92  61  91 /   0  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  61  96  60  94 /   0  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  99  67  96 /   0  10  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  67 100  65  98 /   0  10  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  66 102  65  99 /   0  10  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66 100  66  98 /   0  10  20   5
Belen...........................  62 102  61  99 /   0  10  20   5
Bernalillo......................  65 101  65 100 /   0  10  20   5
Bosque Farms....................  62 102  61  98 /   0  10  10   5
Corrales........................  64 101  64  99 /   0  10  20   5
Los Lunas.......................  63 102  61  99 /   0  10  10   5
Placitas........................  65  99  65  96 /   0  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  66 100  66  99 /   0  10  20   5
Socorro.........................  68 100  66 100 /   0  20  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  91  61  90 /   0  10  20  10
Tijeras.........................  61  95  61  92 /   0  10  20  10
Edgewood........................  57  95  59  93 /   0  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  97  55  94 /   0  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  56  92  58  90 /   0  10  20  10
Mountainair.....................  60  93  59  91 /   0  10  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  59  92  59  92 /   0  10  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  66  91  65  93 /   0  20  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  62  84  60  85 /   5  40  20  30
Capulin.........................  55  93  55  85 /   5  30  20  40
Raton...........................  54  96  54  91 /   5  30  20  40
Springer........................  56  98  56  92 /  10  30  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  93  57  89 /   0  20  20  30
Clayton.........................  60 100  64  91 /   5  30  20  30
Roy.............................  58  96  60  91 /   5  40  20  30
Conchas.........................  64 103  66 100 /   5  20  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  64 100  64  98 /   5  30  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  65 104  67 102 /  10   5  10  10
Clovis..........................  67 101  68 101 /  10   0  20   5
Portales........................  67 102  67 102 /  10   0   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  67 102  66 102 /   5  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  74 103  72 106 /   0   5  10   5
Picacho.........................  66  95  64  96 /   5  50  20  20
Elk.............................  63  92  62  92 /   5  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219-220-238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-219.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44