039
FXUS61 KBGM 110532
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
132 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and
Saturday. A low pressure system will bring more widespread
showers Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will remain quite warm
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
300 PM Update...

Upper level trough swings through this afternoon and evening with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Models forecast CAPE
values up to 1,500 J/Kg and 0-6 km bulk shear 30 knots or less.
Model sounding show much higher shear in the 0-8km layer extending
through the hail growth zone. Although mid level lapse rates are
lacking todays parameters could support isolated strong to severe
storms. That is if storms are able to tap into the instability
aloft. Main threat today will include large hail along with strong
gusts. Most of the area remains in a Marginal risk, with the
exclusion of the Western Catskills region NY, and The Wyoming and
Pocono Mountain region of PA where instability values are lower.
Highs range in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Showers are
expected to linger into the evening hours, gradually diminishing as
the sun sets and drier air filters in. Quiet and drier conditions
are expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Brief upper level ridge builds in Friday along with surface
high pressure. This will keep our area mostly dry Friday
morning, but with warm and muggy conditions pop up afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Instability
parameters are similar to today, CAPE values may reach 1,200
J/Kg, but 0-6 km shear is weak. Model soundings are also very
dry, therefore confidence is low for strong storms, but can`t
rule out an isolated few. There is also less capping on soundings
tomorrow, therefore if storms overcome dry air strong to severe
storms may be possible; SPC has our region included in a
marginal risk. CAMs are mostly dry with showers taking off east
of our region over the Western Catskills where orographic lift
may help. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow with
highs in the low to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM Update...

A strong ridge builds east of the region this weekend with SW flow
over the Northeast into early next week. With the center of the
Bermuda high sitting just south of Bermuda, low level flow brings
gulf moisture up into our region. With high dew point temperatures
and highs in the upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday, heat indexes
will be high, likely approaching advisory criteria. Given that we
are not under the ridge axis, the subsidence inversion is weak so
there is a good chance that showers and thunderstorms will form
prior to reaching peak heat helping prevent heat indexes from making
a run for a 100+. Shear will be almost nonexistent with the 250 and
500 mb jet staying well to the NW. Still with temperatures in the
upper 80s and dew points in the up upper 60s and low 70s, afternoon
MUCAPE gets above 1500 J/kg in ensemble means. There really does not
look to be any triggers moving through Saturday but terrain driven
convection will likely still spark off storms, then outflow from
those will help keep storms developing into the evening. With that,
chances of precipitation were kept high for the afternoon.

Sunday looks better for storms as there is a 500 mb shortwave moving
in with an associated surface front. Without much shear and
precipitable water values up around 2 inches, storms will be slow
moving and contain heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM Update...

The long term starts off active as the SW flow remains in place
with more uncertainty with the placement of a ridge axis as we
head into the middle of next week. Monday will be similar to
Sunday as the shortwave trough stalls, keeping the threat for
showers and thunderstorms going. With the trough axis moving
through sometime on Monday, there is a bit better shear though
ensemble means are still between 10 and 15 knots of 0-500 mb
shear so severe thunderstorms are unlikely. As we head into
Tuesday through Thursday, there is good spread in 500 mb heights
with ensemble clusters diverging on either a east coast ridge
or a trough. Models that show ridging are largely dry with low
chances of precipitation and minimal amounts of QPF, while the
troughing solutions keep this unsettled pattern going. There are
a greater amount of members in the cluster supporting an east
coast ridge so chances of precipitation were kept at chance and
lower mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog has developed at ELM. While visibilities will bounce
around, they should settle into LIFR. IFR to LIFR visibilities
due to fog will be possible at BGM and ITH early this morning.
AVP and RME may also see fog but restrictions should be above
IFR. SYR will be the only terminal where fog is not expected.
Other than low visibilities, conditions will be mainly VFR for
this TAF period.

PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon. Prob30 groups were maintained at AVP and BGM, though
slight adjustments were made to the timing. Prob30 groups were
added to ELM and ITH as model guidance is showing some activity
around those terminals as well. Brief restrictions will be
possible if a shower/storm passes right over a terminal.

As skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight, fog will
once again be possible. Fog was introduced to ELM, following
similar timing to this morning with it developing around 03z.

Winds will be light and variable throughout this TAF period,
though could be gusty under showers/storms.

Outlook...

Friday night into Saturday...Mainly VFR with patchy fog again
Sat morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms from late Saturday
morning through early evening.

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions.

Tuesday... VFR conditions possible as high pressure builds in.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL