574
FXUS64 KEPZ 050529
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1129 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The heat is on for much of the lowlands the latter half of the
week and into the early half of the weekend. There will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area each
afternoon and evening beginning on Wednesday. The best chance to
areawide precipitation will be on Friday afternoon. The mountains
will have the best chance for thunderstorms through early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly cloudy, the winds are light to
breezy, and the temperatures are on the very warm side. For
tonight, a shortwave will continue to move across the area
producing partly to mostly cloudy skies. The winds will be
generally light to low end breezy. With some clouds hovering over
the area and the flow at the surface mainly from the west, the
low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be above the normal for
this time of the year. For Wednesday, much of the CWA will be
mainly quiet except for the Sacramento Mountains and areas along
the eastern border may see a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for thunderstorms will be in the
mountains due to orographic lift. These storms will be ordinary in
nature with instability around 300 J/kg and the lifted index
around -3.0C. High pressure will amplify across the Southwest,
which will allow for the high temperatures in the afternoon
several degrees above the normal. The high temperatures for El
Paso and parts of the Dona Ana County will be in the 103 to 104
range. For Thursday, the amplified ridge will linger across the
Southwest while shifting slightly to the east. The center of this
ridge will be across New Mexico, which will cause the temperatures
to increase a few degrees from what they will be on Wednesday.
Additionally, with day time heating and a southerly flow, there
will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Much of the storms will be in the mountains. These storms will
diminish after the sun sets.

For the rest of the period, unsettled weather will continue all
the way into early next week. The upper level ridge will continue
to propagate eastward on Friday while bringing triple digit heat
the the lowlands. As the center of this ridge shift across
central Texas, there will be a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms area wide especially in the afternoon and evening on
Friday. Do not expect wide spread flooding; however, one or two
strong storms could produce a few heavy downpours. Also, with
these storms, strong winds with some areas of blowing dust could
be possible. Showers and thunderstorms will continue each
afternoon and evening especially in the mountains with the
probabilistic chances varying from day to day. There are some
uncertainty early next week as to where the trough/low and a ridge
will be located. This will impact out temperatures for early next
week. With cool air from the showers and cloud cover this weekend
and earl next week, the high temperatures will be not as hot as
they will be latter half of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with FEW250-SCT250.
Winds will remain light and somewhat variable through the period,
less than 10 knots though with some gusts to 20 knots in the
afternoon. Direction will favor westerly at DMN and LRU, southerly
at ELP.
$$

Brown

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For Wednesday, conditions
will be mostly quiet except for in the Sacramento Mountains. There
will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms especially
in the afternoon across the Sacramento Mountains. The winds will
be generally light and temperatures above the normal. Wednesday
overnight recovery will be fair to good. For Thursday, there will
be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the lowlands
with a better chance in the mountains. The winds will be light to
breezy and temperatures continuing to be above the normal. For
the rest of the period, there will be continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms especially in the mountains each
afternoon and evening. The winds will be light to breezy while the
temperatures gradually cool to near the normal on Sunday. With
that said, fire weather conditions will be elevated to near
critical through Sunday.

The min RHs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be below 15%
across most of the area except for in the Sacramento Mountains
where they will be between 16 and 26%. The ventilation rates will
be good to very good for the same period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 104  77 106 /   0   0  10  20
Sierra Blanca            67  96  69  98 /   0  10  10  30
Las Cruces               68 102  70 105 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               64  99  67 102 /   0  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               52  76  54  78 /   0  30  10  40
Truth or Consequences    69  99  71 102 /   0  10  10  20
Silver City              61  94  65  95 /   0  10  10  30
Deming                   63 101  66 104 /   0  10  10  20
Lordsburg                62  99  66 102 /   0  10  10  20
West El Paso Metro       71 101  75 103 /   0   0  10  20
Dell City                64 100  67 102 /   0  20  10  20
Fort Hancock             65 103  68 105 /   0  10  10  30
Loma Linda               66  94  70  97 /   0  10  10  20
Fabens                   68 103  71 105 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Teresa             65  99  69 102 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ           73 100  75 103 /   0  10  10  20
Jornada Range            62 100  65 102 /   0  10  10  20
Hatch                    63 102  65 105 /   0  10  10  20
Columbus                 69 101  70 103 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande                65  99  69 101 /   0  10  10  20
Mayhill                  58  86  57  90 /   0  30  10  40
Mescalero                55  87  57  89 /   0  20   0  30
Timberon                 55  85  56  88 /   0  20  10  30
Winston                  59  92  60  93 /   0  10  10  30
Hillsboro                67  97  68 100 /   0  10  10  30
Spaceport                61  99  62 101 /   0   0  10  20
Lake Roberts             58  94  61  96 /   0  10  10  30
Hurley                   60  96  62  98 /   0  10  10  20
Cliff                    58 101  63 104 /   0  10   0  20
Mule Creek               62  96  65  98 /   0  10   0  20
Faywood                  63  96  66  97 /   0  10  10  20
Animas                   60  99  66 102 /   0   0  10  20
Hachita                  63  99  67 102 /   0   0  10  20
Antelope Wells           61  98  66 100 /   0   0  10  30
Cloverdale               60  94  66  96 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson