014
FXUS64 KEWX 181656
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1156 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Based on webcams trends and GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics
imagery, we have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Fayette, Gonzales,
Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca Counties through 9 AM this morning.
Visibility is reduced to 1/4 mile less in areas of dense fog across
this region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The base of the upper level trough axis is currently moving through
central Texas and will continue east through the morning. Weak upper
level ridging is forecast to build over the area this afternoon
through Sunday, producing dry, mostly clear, and much warmer
temperatures. Fog development is expected through the remainder of
the overnight hours near and east of I-35 and I-37, mixing out after
sunrise. Some areas of dense fog will be possible and we will
monitor the region through the remainder of the overnight for a
possible Dense Fog Advisory.

High temperatures today and Sunday are forecast in the the low to
mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37,
in the upper 90s along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, and
100 to 104 degrees along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

An upper level ridge will dominate across TX during the beginning of
next week. The low level flow will be mostly southeasterly through
Wednesday. Hot temperatures will continue into next week. Highs will
be from the 90s to near 105 each day through Wednesday. Record highs
may be possible along the Rio Grande, and we may see our first 100
degree day in the central part of the CWA Tuesday. We may need to
issue some heat products starting Tuesday. Tuesday night the upper
ridge will shift toward the east, and the flow over TX will become
west-southwesterly. There will be low chances for convection during
the afternoons and evenings Wednesday and Thursday over the northern
part of the CWA. Wednesday a shortwave trough will move through the
upper pattern and a frontal boundary will stall across Central Texas
and this combination may provide enough lift to generate some
showers and thunderstorms. Thursday another shortwave will move
through and help generate convection along a dryline that will move
into the western part of our CWA. Most of the activity will be north
of our CWA, but some storms could develop in our area. However, most
of the area will stay dry both days. Temperatures may drop a couple
of degrees Thursday with any cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are now prevailing at all airports and will continue
to do so for the remainder of the day and evening hours. There is a
small window of possible MVFR/IFR ceilings returning to the I35 sites
tomorrow morning and will include that in the TAFs. Otherwise,
south/southwest flow can be expected for much of the period. Could
see some slightly more breezy conditions for DRT tomorrow afternoon
as low-level winds increase a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  70  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  70  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  76 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  70  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  71  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  71  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...05
Aviation...29