Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 230853
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
353 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Weak mid and upper level ridging slowly replaces a weak mid and
upper level trough moving out across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Similar to the last couple of days, diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and east of I-35 today and again on
Thursday where the deeper moisture resides with heating and lifting
from the seabreeze and departing trough. Cannot rule out isolated
showers where the weak low level jet impinges on the Escarpment in
the early morning, as well as, isolated showers and thunderstorms
coming off the Serranias del Burro in the evening. Slightly above
normal temperatures continue with a minor warming trend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The mid and upper level ridge builds stronger over our area during
the Memorial Day weekend as a low pressure system at the surface and
aloft deepens over the Gulf of Mexico and drifts to the north into
the central Gulf Coastal states. Moisture levels decrease a little
along with increasing subsidence and capping inversion from warm mid
level temperatures. Rain is not expected, however, cannot rule out
isolated showers along Highway 77 on Friday and isolated storms off
the Serranias del Burro in the evening hours. Mixing with warming mid
level temperatures (850 MB temperatures warming to 22C to 28C) will
enable a significant warmup resulting in well above normal daytime
temperatures. By the weekend, highs around 100 or so along the Rio
Grande are expected, possibly spreading to the I-35/I-37 corridors
from San Antonio south on Sunday and Memorial Day. Should the system
in the Gulf of Mexico develop into a tropical or subtropical low (NHC
currently gives it a 50 percent chance), any impact on South Central
Texas would be to enhance the heating and drying.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  70  91  72  94 /  20  -   10   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  68  90  69  93 /  20  -   10   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  69  91  69  94 /  20  -   10   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            88  68  90  69  94 /  10  -   10  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  73  95  73  98 /  -   -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  68  90  69  93 /  20  -   10  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             92  69  95  68  97 /  -   -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  69  90  69  94 /  20  -   10   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  69  90  70  93 /  40  10  30  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  71  92  71  94 /  20  -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           93  71  95  71  97 /  20  -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...04


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