057
FXUS62 KFFC 080834
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
434 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

One more day of nice dewpoints before moisture begins to return
to the area - with a more summerlike feel.

High pressure and dry conditions will persist today. Daytime
dewpoints in the 50s are expected across the CWA which will result
in RH values between 30 and 40 percent. Not much cloud cover around
today, but mid/high clouds will start to increase overnight into
early Sunday.

Models are progging a weak frontal boundary to begin sagging
southward towards far north GA on Sunday. There are some indications
within the thickness pattern a MCS may graze far northern portions
of the front as is nears the area. Not confident enough to go likely
pops for now, and will cap at high end chance across the GA/NC/TN
border.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A digging trough over the Great Lakes Region will help to shove the
stationary boundary further south. This, combined with area wide
PWATs of 1.75"+, will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the
CWA. CAPE values ahead of the front Monday morning will be ~1000
J/Kg and some light shear may be enough for a few storms to become
strong. While widespread severe weather is not expected at this
time, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will all
be possible through Monday.

Models seem to have gotten their act together when it comes to
resolving the evolution of the digging trough. The trough will
bottom out near the GA/FL border, and should be enough to push the
frontal boundary out of the CWA. This will likely mean a short dry
period on Tuesday with PWATs behind the front of only 0.75" or less.

Wednesday will see a return to the wet pattern, though, with a surge
of tropical moisture. Models are also being much more consistent
with this feature than previous runs. Weak tropical low development
over the gulf will drift northward on Wednesday bringing with it a
surge of much juicier air, pushing the front northward once again.
PoPs increase as PWATs potentially climb into 2-2.5" range by Friday
afternoon (gross). Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday onward with this surge of moisture and we will have to
continue to monitor moisture advection for any potential flooding
risks.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR through the period. Some passing mid/high clouds. Winds will
be a challenge due to light speeds. SW very early this morning,
east for a few hours during the mid/late morning and then back to
the SW for the afternoon. Speeds all under 6 kt.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence on wind direction. High confidence remaining
elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  66  92  68 /   0  10  20  20
Atlanta         89  69  93  70 /   0   0  20  20
Blairsville     82  63  82  61 /  10  10  40  20
Cartersville    89  65  90  66 /  10  10  30  20
Columbus        92  68  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
Gainesville     86  67  88  68 /  10  10  20  20
Macon           92  67  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            89  66  90  67 /  10  10  30  20
Peachtree City  91  66  95  69 /   0   0  10  10
Vidalia         94  69  98  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...NListemaa