994
FXUS63 KFGF 190423
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1123 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this
  evening across the area, and a level 2 out of 5 risk for far
  southern portions of the valley. Main impacts would be hail
  up to ping pongs, winds to 60mph, and possible tornadoes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Low level jet is starting to increase this evening for areas
east of the valley. Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop
in west central to central Minnesota. These storms may be strong
at times, with brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty
winds. They are moving toward the northeast into Beltrami
county. Activity that occurred earlier has continued to shift
further into Canada and doesn`t pose an impact to Devils Lake
Basin anymore. We will continue to monitor the environment
through the overnight period as the LLJ continues to increase.

UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A few strong to severe thunderstorms developed in the Devils
Lake region this evening, but since have moved north of the
border into Canada. Watching a secondary area in Otter tail,
Becker, Wadena, and Hubbard counties where we have some
remaining instability. The frontal boundary associated with the
low pressure system out west is currently in central ND and
slowly working its way eastward. There continues to be a chance
for isolated strong to severe storms through the 6z timeframe.
We will continue to monitor through the evening and into the
overnight period.

UPDATE
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

We continue to monitor the latest conditions across the area,
as a few isolated storms have developed in Eddy county and
within Trail county this hour. The chance for a few isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening, but as
we continue on through the evening we start to decrease that
possibility. Otherwise, the main low pressure is still out in
western ND as indicated on satellite, with a boundary
approaching the Devils Lake Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...Synopsis...

Strong, wrapped up upper low continues near the MT/ND border,
with the center of the surface low still well stacked and out
west. The upper system will push off into Canada tonight, with
the trailing surface boundary moving into the Red River Valley.
Some wrap around into Thursday as the upper system continues to
lift northeast, but then flow transitions more towards a more
split pattern with the northern branch bringing some weak waves
by our CWA. A few of the deterministic models bring the southern
branch cut off into MN near our counties. However, there is not
a lot of ensemble agreement on this solution and there does not
seem to be much of a wet signal in the R or M climate. Temps do
seem like they will be trending more towards seasonal averages
up until Wednesday when ridging builds back in.

...Severe potential this afternoon and tonight...

Clouds and shower activity continue to slowly diminish across
our forecast area. SPC mesoanalysis has 1000-1500 J/kg of ML
CAPE across eastern ND and effective bulk shear of 35 to 40 kts.
There has not been much in the way of forcing, but there is a
boundary/dryline and one of the vort lobes currently over
western ND could skirt our CWA. Can`t completely rule out
severe thunderstorm development, but given weak forcing the
marginal/small slight risk continues to seem reasonable. If
anything does fire, supercells will be possible, with the
possibility of a tornado, along with ping pong ball sized hail
and 60 mph winds. Several of the CAMs runs are not very
impressive with storm development this evening, but do break out
some elevated activity later tonight along the boundary as it
moves through western MN thanks to the low level jet. SSCRAM
guidance isn`t too bullish on severe impacts and HREF just has
a few updraft helicity paintballs above 75 m2/s2. Will continue
to monitor how things evolve this evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Isolated thunderstorm chances will be possible in BJI through
08-09z as a boundary shifts east of the area. Otherwise, LLWS
will be possible for all TAF locations overnight as a low level
jet sets up aloft. Winds will be breezy overnight, with
sustained winds 10-15kts. Winds increase tomorrow mid morning
through the early evening, with gusts reaching 30kts for areas
along and west of the valley. Another chance for precipitation
tomorrow afternoon for DVL, with isolated chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Spender