Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
027 FXUS62 KJAX 191910 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Elongated ridging extending from the Mid Atlantic region NE into the Canadian Martimes is supporting strong high pressure east of Cape Cod. Clockwise flow around the high is providing deep easterly flow with weak inverted troughing north of the Bahamas towards the Outer Banks. A weak wave within the inverted troughing pattern has brought scattered, low topped showers mainly from St Augustine northwards into coastal SE GA which should fade with inland extend over NE FL, but a few showers may intrude towards Waycross to US 441 over SE GA. Partly cloudy skies will remain the trend today with winds breeziest at the coast 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 through early evening, but under wind advisory levels. Highs will be cooler along the coast in the mid 80s and warm to the low 90s over inland NE FL and around 90 across far western SE GA. Tonight, another wave of coastal showers will arrive onshore by mid evening and focus more so along coastal NE FL before shifting west of I-95 after midnight to US highway 301. Pockets of heavier amounts 0.25-0.50 may fall in isolated spots with general amounts around a tenth of an inch to under a quarter of an inch. Skies will be mostly cloudy along the NE FL coast as the showers shift onshore. Lows will be warmest at the coast in the upper 70s to near 80 and low 70s over NE FL`s interior with upper 60s to around 70 readings over inland portions of SE GA. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Elevated easterly- northeasterly winds and gusts up to 25-30 mph will continue through Thursday and begin to diminish a bit by Friday evening with high pressure remaining to the north of the area. Diurnal pattern of showers and storms on Thursday is expected ahead of an approaching surface trough of low pressure, currently located to the east of the Bahamas, as it moves west- northwest towards the FL peninsula on Thursday. Come Friday, the surface trough is expected to move across the FL peninsula from east to west, bringing increase rain chances for NE FL and SE GA. The trough should clear the area by the evening on Friday. The elevated winds from the past week will begin to subside and become southeasterly heading into the weekend as the trough moves out. Daytime temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, with warmer temperatures over the far inland locations. Overnight lows will reside mainly in the 70s && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Southeasterly- southerly flow will be in place on Saturday as the high pressure north of the area begins to track further to our north- northeast. Winds are not expected to be as elevated as earlier in the week as the pressure gradient won`t be as strong. A typical summertime convective pattern with daily shower and thunderstorm chances into the upcoming week is expected. Slightly below normal temperatures during the weekend will rise to sit at around normal levels heading into next week as the overall flow will be from the southwest. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Primarily VFR scattered to broken clouds around at 3500-6000 ft with isolated to scattered shower activity. Most of the showers in the next 1-3 hours will be located near around JAX metro areas and into near SSI, with TEMPO group in for a couple of the metro TAFs. A better chance of showers expected tonight, and included TEMPO group for SGJ. Additional chances for showers on Thursday but rain chances fairly limited near 30 percent so VCSH will suffice for now. Sfc winds will be easterly to about 15-20G25-30kt and will generally weaken tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Elongated ridging extending from the Mid Atlantic region NE into the Canadian Martimes are supporting strong high pressure east of Cape Cod. Clockwise flow around the high is providing deep easterly flow with weak inverted troughing north of the Bahamas towards the Outer Banks. A weak wave within the inverted troughing pattern has brought scattered, low topped showers mainly from St Augustine northwards into coastal SE GA which should fade with inland extend over NE FL, but a few showers may intrude towards Waycross to US 441 over SE GA. Partly cloudy skies will remain the trend today with winds breeziest at the coast 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 through early evening, but under wind advisory levels. Highs will be cooler along the coast in the mid 80s and warm to the low 90s over inland NE FL and around 90 across far western SE GA. Tonight, another wave of coastal showers will arrive onshore by mid evening and focus more so along coastal NE FL before shifting west of I-95 after midnight to US highway 301. Pockets of heavier amounts 0.25-0.50 may fall in isolated spots with general amounts around a tenth of an inch to under a quarter of an inch. Skies will be mostly cloudy along the NE FL coast as the showers shift onshore. Lows will be warmest at the coast in the upper 70s to near 80 and low 70s over NE FL`s interior with upper 60s to around 70 readings over inland portions of SE GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 90 69 90 / 10 10 10 60 SSI 77 86 77 87 / 30 20 60 70 JAX 73 87 73 88 / 40 30 50 70 SGJ 76 86 76 89 / 50 50 70 70 GNV 71 89 71 90 / 20 30 30 70 OCF 74 90 73 93 / 20 30 30 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$