Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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097 FXUS62 KMLB 160007 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 807 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mainly VFR conds forecast through the TAF period. Gradual decrease in mid and high clouds overnight with light and variable winds. On Sat, a deeper east flow develops which advects some drier air lowering SHRA/TSRA coverage. So only have VCSH for the interior terminals aft 18Z, pushing westward. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Currently-Tonight... Local radar imagery shows slow moving scattered showers and lightning storms to the north of southern Brevard county and Osceola county. Current temperatures are in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Scattered showers and lightning storms (PoPs ~ 50-60%) are forecast to increase in coverage over west-central Florida as forcing increases due to interactions between the east coast sea breeze and outflow from previous storms. Weak wind fields will result in slow moving storms with a minor flooding potential (1-3" locally in 60 to 90mins), mainly over areas that have received recent heavy rainfall. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over most of east central Florida for this reason. Isolated lightning storms will also be capable of wind gusts to 30-40mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. Shower and storm chances dwindle after sunset and into the overnight with isolated showers and lightning storms over the local Atlantic forecast (PoPs ~20-30%). Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Sunday... High pressure will build to the north over the western Atlantic and the state of Florida with winds forecast to veer onshore and increase into the afternoon at 10-15mph. Predominate onshore easterly flow will keep the west coast sea breeze from making it far inland into central Florida. Shower and storm chances decrease as result with PoPs ~ 30-50%. The highest shower and storm chances are forecast over the western interior where outflow from previous storms converge with the east coast sea breeze. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are expected. Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)... Stout mid-level ridge across the mid Atlc/southeast U.S. extending into the FL peninsula will strengthen thru Tue night along the Eastern Seaboard, but is undercut Wed-Fri by some westward moving mid- level impulses. Temperatures warm aloft, as well, -4.0C to -5.5C. Plentiful PWAT values near 2 inches on Mon, then some overall drier air moves in through mid-week before a return to more moist conditions Thu-Fri. The deep onshore flow continues thru the period and along with the warm temperatures aloft may at best provide for ISOLD lightning chances, especially over land. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft Wed-Fri, along with an influx of moisture may be enough to promote SCT wording for thunder during this timeframe. Showers will remain in the SCT category with perhaps NMRS showers Thu-Fri. With the persistent onshore flow at least into Wed, we will likely see the greatest precip chances along the coast overnight/morning-early afternoon hours, with higher afternoon- evening convective chances across the interior. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten next week with breezy onshore conditions each day with gusts to 25-30mph and perhaps remaining elevated along the coast during the evening/overnight periods. This will create additional convergence along the coast and the latter part of this period. We may have to watch for some pockets of heavy low-topped showery precip, especially along the coast. By Wed night thru Fri, medium range models suggest higher PoPs areawide due to a wave of low pressure that is forecast to approach the east coast of Florida. There is high uncertainty in the forecast mid to late week at this point with global models now trending towards a potential tropical wave/low developing and moving west over the western Atlantic towards the Southeastern U.S. coast. Have continued to undercut the NBM`s high-PoP bias in the midterm for now with high rain and storm chances forecast to return late week. Thanks in part to the onshore flow, temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s (interior), and overnight lows remaining mild in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Currently-Tonight... High pressure will build to the north of Florida into the overnight. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and lightning storms capable of gusty winds are forecast over the local Atlantic into the early morning hours. West to southwest winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer northeast into Sunday morning. Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing 8-14 kts on Sun, 11-17 kts Sun night, and 15-22 kts Mon-Wed as the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun evening, 3-4 ft Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed night. ISOLD- SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into Wed ramping up to likely Wed night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 76 88 / 10 30 10 40 MCO 74 89 75 89 / 20 50 10 30 MLB 74 88 77 88 / 20 30 20 40 VRB 73 88 76 88 / 20 30 20 30 LEE 75 91 75 91 / 20 50 20 20 SFB 74 91 75 90 / 20 40 10 30 ORL 75 91 76 90 / 20 50 10 30 FPR 73 87 76 87 / 10 30 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ AVIATION...Kelly