793
FXUS62 KMLB 041816
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Predominant easterly flow regime will keep most shower activity to
the west of the terminals this afternoon, requiring only VCSH at
LEE and lingering onshore-moving showers near FPR. Winds become
light/variable late tonight, returning to E at 10-15 KT on
Wednesday. A 20% chance for showers for VRB- FPR- SUA after 06Z;
this confidence is too low for mention in TAF at this time.
Somewhat better coverage of storms possible for Orlando Metro on
Wednesday, beyond 05/18Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain onshore flow
through tonight, with the ridge axis located over north Florida.
The NBM continues to produce high shower and thunderstorm chances
this afternoon. However, the best forcing will remain over the
western half of the peninsula, where the sea breeze collision is
expected. Thus, have maintained PoPs that are much lower than the
NBM, around 20-30%. The highest chances will be along and inland
from the Treasure Coast and areas west of Orlando. Showers are
ongoing over the Atlantic waters and will occasionally drift
onshore into coastal areas, especially along the Treasure Coast.
The main threats with any storms today will be lightning strikes
and gusty winds. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the
upper 80s along the coast and lower to mid-90s inland.

Any lingering shower or thunderstorm activity is forecast to
diminish this evening into the overnight. However, a few showers
will remain possible along the Treasure Coast tonight. Morning low
temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  72  94 /  10  20  20  40
MCO  72  94  74  95 /  10  30  20  50
MLB  74  89  74  92 /  10  20  20  50
VRB  73  89  73  92 /  20  20  20  40
LEE  73  94  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
SFB  71  94  74  96 /  10  30  20  50
ORL  73  94  75  96 /  10  30  20  50
FPR  72  89  72  92 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil