Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 110110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
910 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018


Rest of Tonight...Daytime convection wound down before sunset after
an early start today. Will decrease PoPs below mentionable values
over land areas for the rest of tonight. Lingering cloudiness from
earlier storms will continue to wane into the late night hours with
overnight mins generally in the mid 70s.

...Previous Forecast Discussion for Saturday...

Sat-Sat Night...The low level ridge will remain south of the state
on Sat with low level W/WNW flow in the morning becoming W/SW in the
afternoon. GFS indicates a low level trough near the Treasure coast
in the morning with deeper moisture (PWATs to 2.0 inches) near the
boundary and 1.8-1.9 inches across nrn sections. The area will also
be under the influence of a low level trough from Carolinas into GA
which will keep fairly deep moisture across the area. Convection
should develop along a progressive west coast breeze boundary into
the interior and also near a slow moving east coast sea breeze along
the Treasure coast. Will keep POPs above climo mainly in the 50-60
percent range. Highs will reach around 90 along the Treasure coast
to the lower 90s over the remainder of the area.


.AVIATION...VFR through overnight hours into early Sat. Expect
MFVR to ocnl IFR reductions in Shra/Tsra on Sat starting by 16-18Z
interior and 18-20Z near the coast as sea breeze boundary forms.


.MARINE...Storms near coast/coastal waters diminished early after
an early daytime start. Only mention of Shra/Tsra through overnight
hours will be isolated over the gulf stream waters. Otherwise...
no significant changes planned for overnight hours.

...Previous Marine Forecast Discussion for this weekend...

Sat-Sun...Westerly flow to 10 knots Sat morning will become SW/S
into the afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft near shore and around 2 ft offshore.
Winds will become S/SSW on Sunday with seas up to 2 ft offshore. The
main hazard this weekend will be scattered showers/storms moving
from the mainland toward the intracoastal/near shore waters each
afternoon into the early evening.


.HYDROLOGY...The St Johns River at Astor has fallen just below Flood
Stage and the River Flood Warning has been cancelled. However, this
are is forecast to remain within Action Stage into next week.

The St Johns Above Lake Harney near Geneva, near Sanford, and near
Deland are forecast to slowly decrease into next week, with the
point near Deland receding below Action Stage this weekend.

Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the latest
stage and forecast information.





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