490
FXUS62 KMLB 201725
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
125 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the period at all terminals.
Drier air is forecast to help limit convection across the area,
so confidence in activity near the terminals is lower today. Have
VCSH at the interior terminals and from MLB southward, with VCTS
at FPR and SUA. Will amend if needed. Winds remain out of the NE
around 10 knots, with occasional gusts up to 20 knots not able to
fully be ruled out. Any activity that does happen to pop up across
the peninsula should diminish after 00Z, with persistent NE winds
around 5 knots overnight. This continuous NE flow may prompt some
shower development across the local Atlantic waters overnight,
which could push onshore and lead to VCSH along the coastal
terminals. VCSH will continue along the coastal terminals through
Saturday morning. Winds pick up out of the NE between 5 and 10
knots after 14Z, with sites forecast to become gusty tomorrow
afternoon. Similar set up across the area, with lower confidence
in convective development beyond 18Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A few showers over the offshore Atlantic waters this morning,
otherwise, mostly quiet across east central Florida. Patchy fog
earlier this morning has since dissipated with the daytime
heating. Expect fairly similar conditions today as yesterday, as
a weak trough extends down across the US east coast, including the
Florida peninsula. Light northeast winds this morning will become
east- northeast by this afternoon and increase to 5-10 mph with a
few gusts to around 20 mph possible. The 10Z XMR sounding shows a
PW value around 1.5", with drier air in the mid and upper levels.
The GOES derived PW is in good agreement, with PW values of
1.4-1.5" across east central Florida. This will support isolated
to scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon. The
greatest moisture will focus from Orlando/Cape Canaveral
southward, with 20-30 percent chance of showers/storms near I-4
and the Space Coast and 40-50 percent chances for the Treasure
Coast. Main storm threats today will be occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-45 mph, and brief torrential
rain which could cause minor flooding. Afternoon highs will be in
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Tonight, mostly dry conditions are expected with a few showers
possibly skirting the coast in the NE flow. Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 70s. Forecast remains on track with no major
changes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Boating conditions slowly become poorer over the next few days as
onshore winds increase. As high pressure settles into the
Appalachians, northeast winds freshen to 8-13 KT today through the
weekend. There is a low to medium chance for showers and a few
storms, though offshore-moving storms look less likely. By early
next week, winds turn more easterly at 10-15 KT. Seas 2-4 FT through
Saturday before building to 3-5 FT Sunday-Tuesday, largely driven by
a northeast swell at 9-11 sec.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  74  88 /  20  30  10  30
MCO  74  89  74  90 /  10  30  10  30
MLB  75  88  76  89 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  73  89  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  73  89  73  91 /   0  20   0  20
SFB  73  88  74  89 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  90  75  90 /  10  30  10  40
FPR  73  88  74  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen