147
FXUS63 KMQT 140806
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
406 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Saturday before the return of showers and
  thunderstorms later in the weekend.

- Warmer than normal next week with frequent chances for showers
  and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The short quiet period has begun, welcoming in the weekend. Current
RAP analysis shows the shortwave trough (responsible for yesterday`s
shower and storm activity) axis centered just east of the northern
Ontario and Quebec province line with a ridge over the Rockies and a
trough over the southern CA and AZ state line. Sfc high pressure
currently expanding over much of central Canada and down in to the
northern Plains is progged to shift east through tonight, compressing
over northern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region. Meanwhile,
the mid level ridge to the west moves east, building over the the
Great Lakes region. With mostly clear skies across the UP now, temps
have dropped into the 40s in the interior with low to mid 50s along
the lakeshores. These low dew point depressions and calm conditions
have allowed for some patchy fog to develop in the west, this should
mix out this morning with diurnal heating.

Temps today will be cooler than yesterday with interior highs mainly
in the low to mid 70s. Those along Lake Superior, especially in the
east, will see cooler temps in the 60s with the eastern shores
expected to stay in the 50s. Some diurnal cu in the interior west is
possible in the afternoon with some upslope support and moisture
advection from the Lake Michigan Lake breeze; a lake breeze is also
expected off Lake Superior this afternoon. RHs look to fall into the
40s and 30s, but with light winds mainly below 15 mph and antecedent
rainfall, wildfire conditions should be benign to end the work week
and begin the weekend.

Mostly clear skies tonight will provide another radiative cooling
period for the UP. While the airmass is not particularly dry for
ideal cooling, drier PWATs noted over the east (0.65" to 0.7") will
help temps settle into the low to mid 40s; lows in the mid 40s to
low 50s are expected in the west half where PWATs are around 0.9".
With the sfc high pressure becoming centered just north of Lake
Huron by Saturday morning at around 1012 mb per the 6/14 0z HREF
mean, winds are expected become near calm over the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The active weather pattern across the CONUS continues through the
long-term forecast. The main features of note at 500mb are ridging
over the Plains and cutoff low troughs over the Pacific NW and the
Four Corners region. Despite high pressure to end the work week and
begin the weekend, the overall weather pattern through the long term
is wetter than normal and warmer than normal, with some of the
hottest temperatures of the year thus far forecast for the beginning
of next week.

Dry weather will be over the UP through at least Saturday morning as
ridging aloft builds in and supports a near-1020mb high pressure
over the Upper Great Lakes. Friday will be a slightly cooler day
with highs only in the 60s to low 70s, but highs recover to the mid
70s for Saturday. RHs look to fall into the 40s and 30s, but with
very light winds, weather should be benign to end the work week and
begin the weekend.

Meanwhile, the pair of cutoff low troughs will advance towards the
Upper Great Lakes. The GEFS shows two clusters of surface lows by
Saturday afternoon, one over Saskatchewan and one around the
ND/SD/WY/MT region. These lows become one north of Lake Winnipeg
at around 985mb by Sunday evening. With high pressure shifting
to the east from the Great Lakes to the New England Coast,
predominantly southerly low level flow will allow Gulf moisture
to surge north, as shown in the NAEFS vapor transport being at
the 90th to 97.5th percentile of climatology along with PWATs of
near 1.5 inches. Depending on the evolution and interaction of
the upper troughs and resultant surface features, multiple
lifting mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms will be present
by Saturday evening, with PoPs spreading west to east beginning
around 18Z Saturday. As the pattern is complex, details on the
strength and timing of storms is tough to narrow down, so look
for future forecast packages to gain clarity there, but with the
available moisture to work with, ensembles do show about a 10%
chance of daily precip totals to exceed an inch by Monday. This
continues a downward trend in the ensemble guidance, though
outdoor activities this weekend should still be generally aware
of the potential for rainfall.

The gradual warmup continues into next week, with high 80s for much
of next week, with widespread low to mid 90s in the 50th to 75th
percentile of the NBM, especially Tuesday. PoPs remain in the rest
of the long term forecast as ensembles show a continued chaotic
pattern through mid-June. The general pattern looks to support
ridging over the eastern CONUS with a persistent surface high off
the East Coast, which should help create southerly to southwesterly
flow to advect further Gulf moisture north. As a result, the CPC
outlooks the 8-14 day period as being more likely to be warmer than
normal and wetter than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals as high pressure
builds over the area. The exception to this is IWD where some fog
has developed thanks to the calm conditions and low level moisture.
Added in a tempo group to include periods of LIFR vis through early
this morning when diurnal heating helps mix things out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Thunderstorms are ongoing at 4PM EDT between Isle Royale and the
Keweenaw Peninsula. These storms will continue to push ESE to SE
throughout the evening, occasionally bringing lightning, strong
winds, and hail. High pressure building over the Upper Great Lakes
into the weekend will keep wind gusts below 20 kt Friday through
Sunday morning, when a cold front will bring a return of
thunderstorm chances. Southerly winds will gust to 20-25 kt before
the cold front turns the winds westerly and wind gusts fall below 20
kt going into next week. Waves will largely be below 4 ft until
Sunday when waves along the US/Canada border on Lake Superior will
grow to 4-5 ft.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...GS