625
FXUS64 KTSA 271733
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Current forecast for today is on track. Only a
few minor adjustments made to better reflect current
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Surface high pressure builds over the region today, making for a
nice Memorial Day areawide. Skies will be clear, winds will be
light, and temperatures will be warm as most locations warm into
the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. No rain or storms in
the forecast for today for a welcome break to the unsettled
pattern that has been endured through much of May.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A pattern change to more northwesterly flow aloft is still on
track through the middle part of the week as mid level ridging
expands into the western CONUS. This will bring chances for
multiple thunderstorms complexes to impact the area through
Thursday. The initial wave on Monday night into Tuesday could
mainly stay focused west of the forecast area across central
Oklahoma, with a gradual spread eastward for Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

The western ridge breaks down somewhat toward the latter part of
the week with more zonal to southwesterly flow aloft spreading
back over the Plains. Several disturbances look to move through
the area, with near daily thunderstorm chances continuing into the
weekend as the warm, moist airmass remains in place. Some
semblance of severe weather threat will likely set up, along with
the threat of heavy rainfall. Some guidance indicates a frontal
boundary will move into the area late next weekend and possibly
provide a more focused severe threat, but many differences exist
this far out for any definitive area that might see a higher end
severe threat. Temperatures through the period will depend on the
evolution of thunderstorms every night, but will mainly stay near
seasonal averages for this time of year.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid
period at all area sites.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  83  62  83 /  10  30  30  30
FSM   64  87  65  83 /   0  30  30  40
MLC   64  86  64  82 /  10  40  40  50
BVO   59  80  58  82 /  20  30  20  30
FYV   60  84  59  82 /   0  20  20  30
BYV   60  83  59  80 /   0  20  10  20
MKO   63  84  62  80 /  10  30  30  40
MIO   60  81  58  81 /  10  20  10  20
F10   63  83  62  80 /  10  40  40  40
HHW   66  84  64  78 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10