653
FXUS64 KTSA 291928
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
228 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Remnant MVC across the area this afternoon has resulted
in a few showers and thunderstorms across parts of NE OK, with
spotty shower activity noted elsewhere. Expect this to
diminish this evening which should leave most of the area dry
until late tonight, when PoPs will start to increase for parts of
NE/SE OK as another storm complex approaches from the W-NW.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

PoPs to expand Thursday, with the highest PoPs across SE OK as
the storm complex tracks towards the the Red River from the
morning into the afternoon hours. Expect an overall weakening
trend from late afternoon into the evening, but will keep a
broadbrush of chance PoPs in between 00-06z. Will increase
rain/storm chances after 06z Friday as another complex is expected
to develop to the northwest in association with a stronger upper
wave. This complex will track towards the forecast area late
Thursday night into Friday. Once this wave passes to the east
Friday night, much of Saturday should remain dry. A subtle wave
passing through Sunday may result in isolated to widely scattered
activity, so will carry low end PoPs at this time for the end of
the weekend.

Overall, the active pattern continues into next week, though some
medium range solutions suggest weak, but somewhat `dirty` ridging
possibly setting up over the area which may result in lower end
coverage of rain and storms. However, any modest mid level height
rises will be suppressed by a stronger wave that looks to move
through Tuesday night/early Wednesday.




&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A few light showers passing through eastern OK at present, and
still expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this
afternoon, with greatest coverage likely focused across western
AR. Afternoon convection will trend downward through the evening.
Any site that receives significant rainfall later today could see
fog overnight, but confidence remains too low. Some indications
that a more organized cluster for storms may move into eastern OK
early Thursday morning. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail outside
of direct influence from thunderstorms and fog as mentioned above.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  81  65  77 /  20  50  70  80
FSM   65  83  67  80 /  20  50  40  80
MLC   65  81  65  78 /  20  60  60  90
BVO   60  81  62  76 /  10  50  80  80
FYV   60  82  65  76 /  20  50  50  80
BYV   60  81  62  75 /  20  50  40  70
MKO   63  79  65  75 /  20  50  60  90
MIO   60  81  64  74 /  20  50  60  80
F10   63  78  65  76 /  20  50  70  90
HHW   65  76  65  76 /  30  60  50  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14