486
FXUS65 KGJT 140544
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1144 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, wetter weather settles in today through Wednesday
  morning. Sloppy travel conditions are expected above 9,000
  feet.

- Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for some valleys early
  Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the
  susceptible areas.

- After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather
  returns to the region Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Models are in good agreement with each other and with satellite
imagery for the most part. One notable difference is that the
satellite imagery shows the shortwave over southeastern Idaho to be
deeper, down into the H500 and even H700 levels, and a more wrapped
up low than the open wave depicted in the models. Light  isolated to
scattered showers are increasing in coverage as they move through
eastern Utah and Western Colorado. To the west over western Utah,
closer to the low, coverage is more widespread with embedded
isolated thunderstorms. Look for this activity to start moving into
our region around midnight and increasing through the overnight as
showers and thunderstorms spread northeast across region.  With the
low tracking to the northeast across the region through the morning
hours, pushing east of the Divide in the afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms will diminish through the afternoon and evening with
only a few lingering showers mostly through the central Colorado
mountains overnight into Wednesday. There is no real defined front
with this system, but with cold air advection aloft widespread
precipitation, temperatures will cool about ten degrees from
Monday`s highs, or to five to ten degrees below normal for mid
April. With skies clearing out overnight Tuesday, temperatures in
many of the lower valleys will drop below the freezing mark. Because
there is still uncertainty with the morning low, continued the
Freeze Watch  across eastern Utah and Western Colorado late Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND:

Wednesday and Thursday will bring a brief warm up, but Thursday will
see another round of gusty winds ahead of the next system, another
low pressure system that drops in from the Pacific Northwest. This
next system looks to have a strong cold front associated with it
with temperatures falling 15 to 25 degrees behind the front leading
to a hard freeze possible Saturday morning. It`s too soon to say how
much snow this system will produce, but snow may drop into the lower
valleys behind the front. Stay tuned through the next few day as we
sort this out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Scattered to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will
lead to a complex forecast over the next 18 to 24 hours.
Currently most areas are VFR/ILS but as the main storm
approaches through the morning hours expect conditions to
deteriorate with temporary to PROB30 chances of MVFR and
possibly IFR conditions as heavier shower and lower clouds move
through. Things do not look to begin to improve until mid to
late afternoon with a return to VFR prevailing at most TAF sites
again by 15/00Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023.
UT...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for UTZ024.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT