


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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761 FXUS65 KGJT 222331 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 531 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread critical fire weather conditions will remain in place today with dry and windy conditions, with wind gusts of 45-55 mph possible across the I-70 corridor and northwest Colorado, with 30-40 mph gusts elsewhere, through this evening. - Temperatures will be cooler today, running 3-5 degrees below normal, but will warm to near-normal values tomorrow. Above normal heat returns late week. - Critical fire weather conditions will stick with us through Tuesday, as dry surface levels and gusty southwest winds remain across the northern and western portions of the area. - Potential for storms increases on Tuesday and Wednesday across the southern and central Colorado mountains with more of a gusty wind and lightning threat than wetting rain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 A cool front nosing into the region today brought a few surprise light showers to northeastern Utah this morning. However, as the day has warmed, this front has struggled to produce much more than a few clouds. Along and ahead of this frontal feature, westerly to southwesterly winds are gusting 35-45 mph across the area, with gusts up to 55 mph along the I-70 corridor east of Grand Junction. This area, as well as portions of northwest Colorado, including Craig and Meeker, remain in a Wind Advisory through 6PM this evening. Additionally, with these gusty winds and dry surface levels, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today. Therefore yet another round of Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Thanks to the cooler airmass and slightly increased cloud cover associated with the cool front, highs today will run 3-5 degrees below normal. The wave associated with this cool front tracks off to the north tonight, allowing winds to relax a bit. However, another wave drops down the West Coast tonight, swinging into the Great Basin tomorrow. This will once again turn flow southerly to southwesterly and will tighten up the gradient aloft. The jet associated with this wave is forecast to be a bit weaker than those we saw in days prior, leading to overall weaker winds at the surface in comparison. However, gusts of 25-35 mph will still be common across central-western Colorado. Surface conditions here will still be dry enough to combine with the winds and create critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. The Fire Weather Watches for most of these areas have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings from 11AM to 8PM MDT tomorrow. The Fire Weather Watch for Colorado Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin has been cancelled, as conditions appear to be just a little too borderline. Localized critical fire weather conditions are still expected in this zone, mainly across the lower elevations. Temperatures will rebound to near-normal values tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 On Tuesday, another trough drops over the Great Basin leaving us under south-southwest flow aloft. This flow begins to tap into some deeper moisture and advects it into the southern and central mountains. This is where afternoon showers and storms are possible. These showers will be more efficient at producing gusty winds than rain. Although the tallest peaks could see over a tenth of an inch. Elsewhere remains rather dry in the low levels especially the northwest half of the area. Winds pick up ahead of the trough and therefore we are looking at the potential for critical fire weather at these drier locations. Fire Weather Watches have been issued for Tuesday afternoon for portions of Northwest Colorado and Northeast Utah. On Wednesday, the trough begins to lift over the region bringing moisture further west and north. The main question is what will the shower coverage be over the higher terrain. For the now locations near the Divide are favored. Once again, gusty outflow winds are more likely to come out of these showers over rain. This moisture will help RHs recover over the mountains, but desert valleys will remain dry. As that trough crosses over the Plains moisture gets shunted to the south and east so the chances for showers decrease. By next weekend a ridge begins to build over the region causing temperatures to rise above normal and keeping us dry. There are early signs that moisture across AZ and NM may eventually get pushed back into the area within the anticyclonic flow under the high, but that is a ways out in the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy winds will decouple over the next few hours, becoming generally terrain driven winds overnight. Southwest winds will pick up after 18Z with 20-30 kt gusts through the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 High temperatures are expected to fall 5 to 10 degrees below normal today before rising again throughout the next several days. That being said, we are still meeting critical fire weather criteria for portions of the region as dry air and strong gusts persist. Some added moisture may provide relief to locations south of US-50 beginning tomorrow, but continued elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across our northern regions at least through Tuesday. As such, Red Flag Warnings are in effect today and tomorrow. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202- 203-205-207-290>295. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ200-202-203-205-290. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ002-007-008. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ203-205- 290-292. UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487- 490-491. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for UTZ486-487-490. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...BW/TGJT