302
FXUS65 KGJT 141746
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1146 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, wetter weather continues through Wednesday morning
  with valley rain and mountain snow. Slick travel conditions
  are expected above 10,000 feet.

- Sub-freezing temperatures are expected for most valleys
  tonight into Wednesday morning where the Freeze Watch was
  upgraded to a Freeze Warning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for
  a few valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well.

- After a brief mid-week warm up, colder and unsettled weather
  returns to the region Thursday night into Saturday morning
  with widespread hard freeze possible as well as mountain and
  high valley snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

WET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY:

The low pressure system providing the beneficial moisture is
currently seen spinning over east-central Utah and tracking
northeast into west-central Colorado late this morning, with
showers moving southwest to northeast. We have been seeing a
steady light precipitation with some pockets of moderate to
heavy rates dependent on stronger convective showers. Lightning
appears more isolated at the moment but could see better
coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon as hi-res CAMs are
indicating some pockets of 200 to 300 J/kg of CAPE. Gusty winds
and small hail are possible with convection that does form as
we`ve seen already this morning. Across the higher terrain, some
snow is falling but roadways remain wet due to the milder
temperatures associated with this particular low pressure
system. We could still see slushy and slick conditions at the
higher passes and low visibility with falling snow despite the
mostly wet roads but impacts will be more localized to the
higher passes above 10,000 feet. Caution still urged if
traveling. Shower activity will continue into the evening but
should begin to lessen in coverage after sunset as the shortwave
trough exits to the east and drier northwest flow moves in
behind it. Showers appear confined to the divide after midnight
through Wednesday morning.

FREEZE POTENTIAL:

As the system moves out this evening, sub-freezing temperatures
appear likely tonight through Wednesday morning for most lower
valleys with exception of the Grand Valley and valleys of east-
central and southeast Utah. Therefore, upgraded the Freeze Watch
to a Freeze Warning for those areas. The growing season is well
underway for all lower valleys so protect plants and sensitive
vegetation if you are impacted. Temperatures begin to warm
Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions expected but we still
have potential for below freezing temperatures Wednesday night
into Thursday morning for the southwest Colorado valleys and the
Central Colorado River Basin (valleys east of New Castle and
south of Glenwood Springs to Carbondale), so issued a Freeze
Watch for those areas Wednesday night. More widespread freeze
potential arrives with the next colder system Thursday night and
especially Friday night into Saturday morning, so stay up to
date on the latest as more freeze highlights are likely.

MUCH COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND LOOKING AHEAD:

In addition to the warmer temperatures Thursday (5 to 10 degrees
above normal), southwest winds increase Thursday ahead of a more
potent and colder low pressure system with potential for gusts in
the 30 to 45 mph range. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible across central and southern valleys due to combination of
low relative humidity and gusty winds...all dependent on fuel
status. This next system looks to have a strong cold front
associated with it with temperatures falling 15 to 25 degrees behind
the front leading to a widespread hard freeze possible Friday night
into Saturday morning. It`s too soon to say how much snow this
system will produce, but snow may drop into the lower valleys behind
the front. At this time, it does at least appear like the mountains
and higher valleys of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah are
favored for better accumulations.

Looking beyond Saturday, a high pressure ridge builds back in this
weekend into early next week, resulting in a return back up towards
above normal warmth as the rollercoaster spring weather continues.
However, another storm system potentially looms for mid to late next
week, so we still look to remain in this progressive pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Scattered to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
will lead to a complex forecast over the next 6 to 10 hours. A
mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are in place and expect
periodic IFR/LIFR conditions as heavier showers and lower clouds
move over terminals. Things do not look to begin to improve
until this evening with a return to VFR prevailing at most TAF
sites.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for
     COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023.
     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for COZ008-021>023.
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for
     UTZ024.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDA/DB
AVIATION...TGJT