000
FXUS65 KGJT 290533
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1133 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Upper-level low pressure system continues to spin over the
southern high plains this afternoon. High cirrus cloud cover has
drifted westward on the northwest fringes of this system, and has
made it back over the divide in the central and southern Colorado
mountains. Forecast guidance indicates that this upper-level low
pressure will translate eastward this evening and overnight,
resulting in decreasing upper-level cloud cover over Colorado. The
remaining forecast challenge was determining whether or not any
low-stratus will develop in the higher-elevation basins including
Gunnison and Craig. Forecast soundings as well as high-resolution
moisture fields do indicate a bit of northerly surface flow coming
out of Wyoming, possibly transporting enough moisture for low
stratus. Additionally, higher RH in the Gunnison Valley and
upper-Colorado/Eagle drainages supports some low cloud cover. Have
added additional clouds to these locations in the forecast from
roughly midnight through the mid-morning hours on Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to rebound on Thursday as warm-air
advection continues. In addition, a fair amount of snow will have
melted by Thursday especially in the lower valleys, which should
assist in afternoon high temperature recovery. Forecast guidance
again indicates the potential for low stratus on Thursday night,
and low clouds have been added to this timeframe in the higher
elevation valleys once again.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Tranquil weather will continue over eastern Utah and western
Colorado for the entire long-term forecast. A weak dry cold front
will pass along the Wyoming border on Saturday morning, however
only a few isolated high clouds are expected from this system.
Temperatures will largely remain unaffected however the northern
mountains may end up a few degrees cooler on Saturday. As a large
ridge of high pressure builds over the western CONUS early next
week, some moisture may try to sneak in from the subtropics as a
weak upper-level low moves inland off the coast of the Baja.
Isolated showers would be possible in the San Juans and Four
Corners if this scenario would come to fruition as indicated by
the GFS. The ECMWF does not develop this low pressure system
nearly as much and moves any moisture from the south well to the
east of the Four Corners. Overall, near to slightly above-normal
temperatures are expected through the long term and dry weather is
likely for all areas through the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

VFR conditions and light winds will be the rule through the next
24 hours at TAF sites across eastern Utah and western Colorado.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...NL