761
FXUS65 KGJT 222331
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
531 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions will remain in
  place today with dry and windy conditions, with wind gusts of
  45-55 mph possible across the I-70 corridor and northwest
  Colorado, with 30-40 mph gusts elsewhere, through this
  evening.

- Temperatures will be cooler today, running 3-5 degrees below normal,
  but will warm to near-normal values tomorrow. Above normal
  heat returns late week.

- Critical fire weather conditions will stick with us through Tuesday,
  as dry surface levels and gusty southwest winds remain across
  the northern and western portions of the area.

- Potential for storms increases on Tuesday and Wednesday across
  the southern and central Colorado mountains with more of a
  gusty wind and lightning threat than wetting rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A cool front nosing into the region today brought a few surprise
light showers to northeastern Utah this morning. However, as the day
has warmed, this front has struggled to produce much more than a few
clouds. Along and ahead of this frontal feature, westerly to
southwesterly winds are gusting 35-45 mph across the area, with
gusts up to 55 mph along the I-70 corridor east of Grand Junction.
This area, as well as portions of northwest Colorado, including
Craig and Meeker, remain in a Wind Advisory through 6PM this
evening. Additionally, with these gusty winds and dry surface
levels, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected
today. Therefore yet another round of Red Flag Warnings are in
effect.

Thanks to the cooler airmass and slightly increased cloud cover
associated with the cool front, highs today will run 3-5 degrees
below normal. The wave associated with this cool front tracks off to
the north tonight, allowing winds to relax a bit. However, another
wave drops down the West Coast tonight, swinging into the Great
Basin tomorrow. This will once again turn flow southerly to
southwesterly and will tighten up the gradient aloft. The jet
associated with this wave is forecast to be a bit weaker than those
we saw in days prior, leading to overall weaker winds at the surface
in comparison. However, gusts of 25-35 mph will still be common
across central-western Colorado. Surface conditions here will still
be dry enough to combine with the winds and create critical fire
weather conditions during the afternoon. The Fire Weather Watches
for most of these areas have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings from
11AM to 8PM MDT tomorrow. The Fire Weather Watch for Colorado Fire
Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin has been cancelled, as conditions
appear to be just a little too borderline. Localized critical fire
weather conditions are still expected in this zone, mainly across
the lower elevations. Temperatures will rebound to near-normal
values tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

On Tuesday, another trough drops over the Great Basin leaving us
under south-southwest flow aloft. This flow begins to tap into some
deeper moisture and advects it into the southern and central
mountains. This is where afternoon showers and storms are possible.
These showers will be more efficient at producing gusty winds than
rain. Although the tallest peaks could see over a tenth of an inch.
Elsewhere remains rather dry in the low levels especially the
northwest half of the area. Winds pick up ahead of the trough and
therefore we are looking at the potential for critical fire weather
at these drier locations. Fire Weather Watches have been issued for
Tuesday afternoon for portions of Northwest Colorado and Northeast
Utah. On Wednesday, the trough begins to lift over the region
bringing moisture further west and north. The main question is what
will the shower coverage be over the higher terrain. For the now
locations near the Divide are favored. Once again, gusty outflow
winds are more likely to come out of these showers over rain. This
moisture will help RHs recover over the mountains, but desert
valleys will remain dry. As that trough crosses over the Plains
moisture gets shunted to the south and east so the chances for
showers decrease. By next weekend a ridge begins to build over the
region causing temperatures to rise above normal and keeping us dry.
There are early signs that moisture across AZ and NM may eventually
get pushed back into the area within the anticyclonic flow under the
high, but that is a ways out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy winds will
decouple over the next few hours, becoming generally terrain
driven winds overnight. Southwest winds will pick up after 18Z
with 20-30 kt gusts through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

High temperatures are expected to fall 5 to 10 degrees below normal
today before rising again throughout the next several days.
That being said, we are still meeting critical fire weather criteria
for portions of the region as dry air and strong gusts persist. Some
added moisture may provide relief to locations south of US-50
beginning tomorrow, but continued elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are likely across our northern regions at least through
Tuesday. As such, Red Flag Warnings are in effect today and
tomorrow.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-
     203-205-207-290>295.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for COZ200-202-203-205-290.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ002-007-008.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ203-205-
     290-292.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-
     490-491.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for UTZ486-487-490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...BW/TGJT