Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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376 FXUS63 KEAX 152328 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (15-25%) for an isolated shower or storm this afternoon and again on Monday for areas east of Highway 65. - Slight chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with better chances (30-50%) for more widespread precipitation coming Friday into the weekend. - Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A closed upper low, including the remnants of Francine, continues to wobble across the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon with a longwave trough over the western CONUS. Diurnal heating has eroded the capping inversion leading to a growing cumulus field. Ascent is rather weak, but weak forcing associated with a westward progressing lobe of energy could be sufficient to produce a few isolated showers and storms this afternoon. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, but weak shear favors up-and-down pulse thunderstorms which could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Any convection will wane with sunset this evening. Clear skies and light surface winds overnight supports the development of patchy fog, but elevated winds just off the surface should limit this to low-lying areas and river valleys. Similar conditions to today are expected on Monday as the western trough amplifies and a tropical system moves inland across the Carolinas. In between, mid-level ridging builds over the Central Plains with highs again in the 80s. Weak ascent in an uncapped environment could produce a few isolated showers/storms Monday afternoon across central Missouri, but lack of shear will once again limit intensity of these storms. The mid-level ridge moves overhead for Tuesday, leading to dry conditions before the western trough takes on a negative tilt as it ejects across the Rockies and Northern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. While the main forcing will reside well north and west of the local area, subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow could spark periodic showers and storms across eastern Kansas and western Missouri Wednesday and Thursday. Higher chances (30-50%) for more widespread precipitation come Friday into the weekend as a closed low approaches from the west and shunts a cold front toward the area. Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal through Friday with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions at most TAF sites through forecast period. Cumulus field with bases around 5kft will diminish with sunset. Southeast winds around 10kts weaken after sunset then become 3-5kts. Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon from southeasterly at 10-12kts. Expect patchy fog or low clouds to develop tomorrow morning 12z-16z for KSTJ with low potential (10-20%) at KMCI. For now have included VIS to 3sm at KSTJ but for now have it out of TAF period for other sites. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...MAK