852
FXUS63 KIWX 091726
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
126 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool Monday with highs near 70, much warmer by Thursday with highs
approaching 90.

- Becoming hot and humid late this coming weekend.

- Mainly dry this upcoming week; chances for storms Thursday
  afternoon through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers have moved east out of the forecast area. Chilly air
behind a weak upper level system and associated cold front will
spread south out of Canada to start the work week. 850 mb
temperatures Monday may drop all of the way down to +3C per GFS.
The latest model guidance favors lows well down into the 40s by
Tuesday morning. Return flow around a large surface high will
begin Tuesday and eventually allow highs to recover well into
the 80s Thursday.

For later this upcoming week, the challenges include timing of a
(weak) cold front and subsequent chances for showers & storms. In
the broader picture, the best window for activity should be open
from early Thursday into Friday. Max CAPE values per GFS range from
1000 J/Kg to 2000 J/Kg. Given modest CAPE, bulk shear and
precipitable water values, these environment factors favor gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall with unorganized storms. However,
if an upstream convective develops into a MCS and moves into the
area, stronger winds would be favored. Confidence is low for
storms on Friday given the likelihood the front will be south of
the area and best chances for storms will likely be in the
higher theta E in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise, the
upcoming weekend should be dry. GFS and ECMWF 850 mb
temperatures near 20C favor highs near 90 Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The passage of a cold frontal boundary brought times of low
visibility and stratus this morning. We`ll continue to be in a cold
advection regime behind this front through the forecast period. One
additional cold frontal boundary moves through Monday in a similar
time to this morning`s and could allow for another period of what
appears to be more of a stratus-conducive environment with sustained
winds forecast to be greater than 5kts Monday morning. Early
projections look like MVFR CIGs will be in play with near 30 percent
chances on the SREF at SBN and to some extent at FWA as well.
There`s also some question how long these can continue into the
daytime Monday after today`s dissipated around sunrise. Aviation
guidance still wants to hold onto the CIGs later than that. Wind
gusts could increase again Monday midday, but may not be as strong
as they are expected to be into this evening with a weaker low level
jet.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM CDT this evening through
     Monday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM EDT this evening through
     Monday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Roller