410
FXUS62 KMLB 301847
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
247 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Turning hotter through the week, with a Moderate to Major
  HeatRisk each afternoon. Increasing risk of heat-related health
  impacts from Independence Day into next weekend as high
  pressure settles over the state.

- A 40% to 60% chance for showers and storms through midweek;
  storm coverage may lessen somewhat toward Independence Day and
  Friday.

Deep tropical moisture will remain in place over the next 72
hours, with PW values exceeding 2" at times. As a trough digs into
the Northern Rockies early this week, heights will build across
the Southeast U.S. and over Florida. This is forecast to steer
Hurricane Beryl, currently east of Barbados, through the Caribbean
Sea and to the south of Florida. More information on Beryl can be
found at hurricanes.gov.

Near the surface, the axis of high pressure will generally hold near
or north of Central Florida through late this week before settling
southward next weekend. Within this regime, there will be daily
chances for showers and lightning storms. However, coverage may
lessen later this week as the influence of the ridge is felt over
Florida. This would also allow temperatures to turn hotter from the
Independence holiday and into next weekend.

Thru Tonight...Early start to convection today thanks to deep
moisture through the column. Both early morning and late morning
Cape soundings showed precip water vales of 2.39". Deep layer
North and NE flow will keep the bulk of the convection inland from
the coast with a steering flow toward the S/SW. Heavy rain
accumulating up to 3 inches in a short period will cause temporary
flooding issues. Have not seen strong downbursts in the cells
though frequent lightning strikes will be common. Boundary
collisions in such a moist (low LCL environment) may be able to
spin up a brief funnel. Much of the interior has already been or
is being worked over currently. The last will be Lake county as
combination of east coast breeze and outflow propagate westward.
Have drawn the highest PoPs (50 percent) there early this evening
then a quiet, muggy night is forecast.

Mon-Wed (previous)... Southeasterly flow will tend to prevail
with an embedded daily sea breeze. Near-to-above-normal available
moisture will support a rinse- and-repeat pattern of daily
scattered storms, with 40-50% coverage near the coast and 60-70%
coverage over the interior, including Greater Orlando. Beach-goers
will likely find quite a bit of dry time. Ridging looks to build
across the state, so mid-level temperatures will increase through
the period, leading to poorer lapse rates and somewhat less
impressive storm cores. Fairly widespread low to mid 90s are
forecast, with peak heat indices 102- 107F. Overnight lows will
range in the mid 70s, except upper 70s over portions of Greater
Orlando and the coast.

Thu-Next Weekend (previous)... The global ensemble suite strongly
suggests that deep-layer ridging will extend across the Sun Belt,
with its axis potentially retreating southward toward Florida by
next weekend. This should steer Hurricane Beryl on a WNW track
through the Caribbean, well south of Florida. In this scenario,
the primary concern appears to be a period of above-normal
temperatures while many folks are outdoors. As H85 temperatures
approach +20C, statistical guidance is indicating low/mid 90s
Thu-Fri and more widespread mid 90s next weekend. As surface high
pressure drifts southward, light southerly flow will begin to take
shape, pumping in more muggy air (dew points in the mid 70s F).
Heat indices may drift closer to our Heat Advisory criteria
(108F), particularly next weekend. Our HeatRisk guidance is
already reaching into the Major category along and north of
Interstate 4.

Storm chances during this period drop into the widely scattered
range (35-55%), focusing over the interior most afternoons. A
handful of ensemble members indicate some mid-level dry air may get
kicked southward over the state, which may further limit storm
chances on one or more days during this period. Subsidence and warm
temperatures aloft will also tend to hinder sustained, deep
convection through at least Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A ridge of high pressure will remain just north of the local
Atlantic waters, with predominant south to southeast breezes
increasing 10-12 KT each day behind the sea breeze. Winds will
turn offshore around 5 KT near the coast in the overnight hours.
Seas generally 2 FT or less through Tuesday, then 2-3 FT on
Wednesday & Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated lightning
storms are possible each day, though there will be a lot of dry
time. Offshore-moving storms appear unlikely. Intracoastal and
inshore boaters will find a light to moderate chop each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The east coast sea breeze has moved inland of the coastal terminals.
Low confidence in lightning at the coastal terminals, and have kept
mention of VCSH late this afternoon. VCTS continues through the
afternoon and evening at the interior terminals with TSRA TEMPOs for
reduced VIS/CIGs in convection. VCSH lingering across the interior
terminals through the evening until around 03Z. Easterly winds
around 7-9 kts become light and variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
MCO  74  92  76  92 /  30  50  20  70
MLB  75  92  77  91 /  20  50  20  50
VRB  74  92  76  91 /  20  50  20  60
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  50  60  30  70
SFB  75  94  77  93 /  30  50  20  60
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  30  50  20  60
FPR  74  91  76  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law